Yes, we all know the history. But thanks for continuing to flood my thread.

Say no more....don't question or discuss anything in the league forums. That's not what the forums are for.

I tried to share information that backed up a point THAT YOU MADE in another thread. And you have now buried the important post more than a page back.

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Carrying this post forward so interested folks don't have to track back for it.

Fred has pointed out on the other thread that teams need to switch to short passes to combat the 46 Heavy pass rush, and I definitely agree.

One of the reasons why I've leaned into the play in my defensive rotation, though, is how well it does against the plays that spread the field and throw underneath and how well it does against the Hitch.

Here's some data that shows what I mean:



This data comes out of a shared database, and I didn't pre-filter it to just my teams. Still it shows a good way of thinking about the value of the 46.

I'm not trying to bury anything. I have questions....shared database from what sources? Does the success hinge on overrides??? Meaning pulling both DTs and using only DE and LBs on the front.

Legitimate questions!

The database is built on games from IoT and I have played. For our individual game planning, I typically filter out data by player, but for aggregated data on the 46 it made more sense to not filter it.

The data is drawn out of 4 leagues (USFL, Champions, Paydirt, and Die Hard Fans). [Of note, I didn't use the 46 Heavy in DHF last season because it wasn't in my playbook, and I didn't pull IoT data from that league.] USFL, Champions, and Paydirt are the leagues that I "actively game plan" which means I pull data per game against opponents to set a game plan.

We both use overrides at the LDE spot in the 46 Heavy. But success in the play largely does not rest on the override. If I dropped McKeon down to an 84 SP/AC DE, he would still be a 20 sack guy against the right offenses (this is where the active game planning come in).

Since he has 53 sacks instead of 20 then the answer is yes....of course the success is based off the quality of opponent and his use of long passing in his gameplan.....or being baited into using long passing based on down and distance.

There is no baiting. This is where active game planning comes in.

Most owners, including myself, default to long passing on 3 and Long downs. (There are exceptions, but that's why you actively game plan.)

So most of the time, I concentrate on what my opponent is doing on first and second down, and then open up my defense on 3rd down against the 113, 122, 203, and 212 sets. The pass only sets I rotate through blitz packages, including the 46 which I consider a blitz package, and for the GL sets I use a whole of different strategies.

My goal in every series is to force my opponent into a 2nd and long and then 3rd and long situation. [This is actually why when I sleepwalked (almost literally) my game with AD a few games ago, the results were so bad. I used the wrong rule against the wrong set, and that over exposed my defense badly on first and second down - but I digress.]

If you win on 1st and 2nd down, then it's sack city on 3rd down because most players are going to break out their long passing plays.

But that's not the only thing I'm banking on by key 1st and 2nd down. The other thing I'm paying attention to when game planning is what Medium and Long passes my opponent throws on those downs, and then using the GP adjustment against my opponent (if they are using one).

Once you have shut down enough plays on 1st and 2nd down to start putting negative pressure on the GP adjustment, you opponent's game plan starts drifting to Long on 1-10. This is when a lot of owners like to break out the medium passes that get back big chunks of yards -- TE Middle, WR Post TE Out, Max Protect, HB Flare (Medium), WR Deep, etc. -- or they start bringing out Long Passes that bring the RB under the coverage sooner -- Weak I All Go, PA All Go, Waggle, etc.

And once a team is in that we have to pass to get back into the game mode, then I stop keying 1st and 2nd down so much and turn the 46 really loose.

So ... now y'all know what the strategy is for the 46 and the plays that beat it (in the 212) ... I can move on to my next one.

Owners should know that setting the GP to 0 mitigates this and using a play ratio of

20 inside run
20 outside run
40 short pass
15 Medium
5 long passing

OR EVEN

25 inside run
25 outside run
40 short pass
10 medium pass
0 long pass

Regardless of down or distance gives you the best shot of long drives and avoiding negative plays. 1st and 10, 2nd and 12, 3rd and 15, 2nd and 8 or 3rd and 1....it doesnt matter because you have more chance to move the ball successfully. I've won Championships with 0 long passing for the entire season.

Long passing sucks and passing on 3rd and over 10 is a recipe for disaster. You have a better shot at running for 15 yards on 3rd and 13 then completing a long pass on the same down and distance.

Even setting a rule for passing if down 2 scores in the 4th should minimize long passing and emphasis short passing.

I have 7 short pass plays that average over 7 yards per attempt while only having 4 medium and 1 long that achieves the same results based on 32 games of samples.

Owners need to accept that running for 5 yards on 3rd and 12 is better then forcing a long pass that results in an even bigger hole via a sack or a turnover. Play the field position game, control the clock and avoid sacks and turnovers. Once you start using the long passing to dig yourself out of a hole, you just dig a bigger hole.

Thats the current state of MFN

I'm trying to wrap my head around this. Common sense tells that CB blitzes and LB blitzes should be successful if those players are fast, correct?

Defensive positioning (the defense called vs the offense) and player speed are the two more important things with defense in MFN right now. Blitzes are largely ineffective because the QB recognizes them instantly and checks down. Another reason the 46 works is because the QB doesn't immediately recognize the LB coming from the DE spot as a blitz.