TheAdmiral wrote:
1961 wrote:
FWIW, I think the talent distribution makes it worse than it looks. Speed is a big thing because there are just SO MANY slow players in every draft. Move towards equalizing speed and ratings become much more relevant...
Which is already happening in BETA.
No, this isn't what happened in beta. What JDB did in beta was collapse the parabolic curve that defines the difference in speed between positions. This is quite the opposite of what was really needed to address the speed problem, and it's really painfully obvious when you watch a SLOWER DE get 12 yards UPFIELD to sack a QB before a FASTER WR can get 8 yards downfield on a short route.
The problem with speed, and the solution to it, is that it's not physically fixed and players are not generate on a bell curve based on it. If speed worked correctly, for example, a 4.2 second 40 yard dash would be a SP of 100 and basically unachievable. A 4.21 40 would be 99, etc. That would mean a SP of 50 would be a 4.7 40 yard dash and a SP of 0 would be 5.2 seconds. All of these times would be fixed on physical points, so you would know how fast a player actually was on the game field.
Then if SP were distributed on a bell curve by position, the median SP for a WR would be 70-75 (4.45 - 4.5 seconds for a 40 yard dash) and the median SP for a DE would be something like 30-40 (4.8 - 4.9 seconds for a 40 yard dash). The player faster than the median should be rare and really specially. [Basically to generate these medians, I would suggest looking at the past 20 years of combine data -- I'm guessing here.]
Finally, SP should never be tied to physical weight. DEs don't suddenly get a full 10th of a second faster in the 40 when they drop 30 pounds to play OLB in the NFL. Why does it happen in MFN?
Physically fixing SP and then setting up proper bell curves based on hard data, it would eliminate the SP argument and the focus could be on technical ability of players.