Well there have been some line changes on 3 of the games I picked, but I will score them based on the spread when I posted them. I lost half a point on SF (now -3) and Denver (now +6) but gained half a point with the Saints (now -3.5). The spread I wanted to move didn't so I will select a different pick, although I wouldn't be afraid of Baltimore -3.5. Ravens are the best team in football IMO, solid everywhere and I suspect they want to prove that to the Chiefs and the country Monday night.

NYJ/Indy Under 44.5 I don't usually like taking totals but I don't see where the Jets offense will come from and I can see the Colts being conservative once they get up 14-0, 17-3 or whatever. Final score Colts 24 Jets 13.

I probably shouldn't post results before SNF is over, but Saints are not gonna cover. I didn't take into account lack of crowd noise, if fans are in the stands Rodgers doesn't get the Saints to jump offsides nor could they hear snap counts, blocking changes.

Donkeys were a stupid pick, they would have been better off rolling out those South Park cutouts they had in the stands.



Still ended up 3-2, I'll take it.

Up late, about to take a nap, so quick picks today.

Cincinnati -2.5 I still believe in Burrow and after 3 close losses, Burrow gets his first W today.
Houston -3.5 Houston is better than their record suggests, and they should handle Minnesota.
Seattle/Miami Over 54.5 I don't think much defense will be played in this game. Russ will keep on cooking and Fitzmagic will keep it close.
Chicago +3 Philip Rivers will turn it over once or twice and BDN shows why Trubenchsky isn't playing. Da Bears win outright.
NYG/Rams Over 48 I heard on the radio that Giants haven't scored more than 20 in awhile. I don't think they'll need to for the over to hit, Rams win 41-14, 38-17, something like that.

Last Week 1-4
YTD 8-12

Good thing I'm not actually betting on my picks, although I expect to turn it around eventually. I have 3 picks I'm ready to post now, including tonight's game.

Chicago +3.5 I prefer taking home teams on short weeks, especially if they're getting points. 77% of the money is on Tampa Bay, they're banged up and I get the extra half point. If Bears don't win outright, they lose by 3 or less imo.
Kansas City -11.5 This one hurts to take, and I do hope I'm wrong but only if Vegas pulls the upset. They won't. Chiefs looked like **** against NE so Mahomes is gonna light the Raiders up, just like everyone else has. Derek Carr can talk about being pissed off about losing all he wants but he needs to look in the mirror first.
Jacksonville +6 Yeah I know Houston fired B.O'B. but they still are stuck with the mess of a defense he left behind. Offense isn't much better outside of QB and I would probably also put some cash on the money line with the Jags.

I'll pick 2 more before Sunday kickoff.

Forgot to pick 2 more games this morning, so I'll pick from the late games.

Indy/Cleveland Under 49 Colts have the #1 defense and have a turnover prone QB. Browns like to run the ball and have a QB with more commercials than TD passes.
Seattle -6.5 With no 12th man to worry about, Minnesota could keep it close but they still have Kirk "I only play well 1:00 Sunday" Cousins. Russ cooks.

Last Week 1-4
Year to Date 9-16

My picks are struggling badly so I'm doing no game research this week other than looking at bet percentages. Taking an anti public stance for Week 6

Jacksonville +3 Ugh, the Jags again? At least they're playing the Lions.
Atlanta +4 I can see why the public doesn't like Atlanta but they only need to stay within a FG.
Denver +7.5 Man, gotta take the Donkeys? At least they're playing another team I can't stand.
Tampa Bay +1 Packers on top of their game before the bye and Brady doesn't know what down it is. I kinda like this pick, as I expect Green Bay may get flagged for holding and or PI more than they should to help keep Tampa Bay relevant.
Buffalo +4.5 Chiefs off a loss, so the public expects a bounce back, especially against a team the Flaming Thumbtacks just handled. Bills can hit the big play like Vegas did and I expect a better performance than Tuesday night.

LOL - was that a reference to an obscure, vintage SNL skit?

https://www.nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/mascot-search/2868057

No, I read it in an online article, by Gregg Easterbrook I think. Anyway, whomever it was referred to the Titans as the Flaming Thumbtacks, and I was confused, until I looked at their logo closely.



Now I can't unsee it as a flaming thumbtack.

lol - I won't be able to unsee that now too.

Last Week 3-2
Year to date Still **** 12-18

Idk if Green Bay was flagged more than they should, but I find it hard to believe Tampa Bay played a penalty free game. Sure feels like Tampa is the chosen team, or was the chosen team. We'll see how the NFL and the refs treat Tom now that AB is in town.

The anti public stance worked so well that I'll use it again for 4 of these games today.

Cincinnati +3 No Mixon probably means Burrow throws 50-60 times. 77% of the bets are on the Browns, but Mayfield seems to be either hurt or regressing, maybe both. I don't really trust the Bengals coaching staff, specifically Zach Taylor, but I trust the public less.
Washington -1 I miss calling them the Foreskins, so I'll need to find some derogatory name for Football Team. Then again, calling themselves Football Team may be derogatory enough. 82% of the bets are on "America's Dumpster Fire", I mean America's team, and sure they should bounce back, but will they? It's true that Dalton got the Bengals to the playoffs 5 straight years, but he basically got run out of town because of his goofy mistakes, which seemed to always come either at the worst time of the game, or in bunches. Red Rocket strikes again, Football Team beats America's Team. And yes I'm aware it's Red Rifle, but c'mon, he plays like a red rocket sometimes.
Las Vegas +4.5 Raiders have OL and covid issues, costing them Sunday Night Football. 77% of the bets are on Tampa Bay, and I understand why, but I think the Bucs are due for a "flag correction", as they had no penalty yardage in their win over Green Bay and they signed Roger Goodell's favorite clown AB. Even if the Raiders don't win The Gruden Bowl, good chance they cover.
Arizona +3.5 The game taking the place of The Gruden Bowl on SNF, 75% of the money is on the SeaHags. Russell Wilson and the SeaHags offense is pretty good, but they need to be with their "defense". Not many people talk about how bad Seattle's defense has played because Wilson bails them out. Cards have some big play weapons themselves, so I'll gladly take Arizona.

One last pick to round out my 5, picking this one myself.

Carolina +7 Still no crowd noise to worry about, division game, no Michael Thomas, Brees looks his age, etc. Not to mention Carolina is better than people thought they'd be and Bridgewater will probably play his best game today, given how the Saints chose Taysom Hill over him.