I used to bet on NFL games online, and now that Indiana has legalized it and has sportsbooks, I may start making weekly trips to the casino in Lawrenceburg. I stopped betting once I realized the games are fixed but I still like to pick games.

I guess I'll consider this practice, so here are games I like in Week 1. Odds are from Doc's sports service as of 7:00 am https://www.docsports.com/nfl-odds.html

I had picked Green Bay to win Thursday in my pools, and I would have bet them but I'm not counting that since it wasn't posted.

NY Jets -2.5
Cincinnati/Seattle Under 44.5
Indianapolis +6.5
NYG/Dal Under 45
Pittsburgh +5.5

I have found week 1 to be the hardest week to handicap, and it's even worse this year with so many starters playing so few preseason snaps.

Almost included Atlanta +3.5 but I don't trust them on the road. I think the Jets will be improved and they should be able to beat the Bills by at least 3. I think the Steelers will be better this year too, addition by subtraction. They may not win the game but the Patriots have been slow starters in September and it's a prime time game which means the NFL wants a close game. The NFL usually gets what it wants, especially when they can control the game with penalty flags.

The 2 under games I picked can be lumped into 1 explanation. The Giants and Bengals seem to be offensively challenged and are on the road against better opponents who don't exactly light up the scoreboard themselves.

If anyone else wants to post some picks, feel free. Happy Kickoff Sunday!

I forgot to include why I picked Indy. I realize Luck is gone but Brissett has been there awhile and he's a pretty good backup plan. I think the Colts had the best team in their division before the retirement, so the rest of the team is still good. Add in the fact everyone is writing them off and you have a team with nothing to lose and a massive chip on their shoulder. On the flip side, the Chargers are without Melvin Gordon, Derwin James, and their kicker is doubtful.

Went 2-3 last week, glad there was no real cash involved. Hoping for a better week.

Tennessee -3
Jacksonville +8.5
Cincinnati Pick 'Em
Miami +19
Philadelphia -1

I'll start with Miami. They are hot garbage and New England are the Champs, should be a blowout, why take the Fish? Strictly numbers. If all you did was bet big home dogs, you'd win in the long run. Miami players want out, but if they don't play better, who will want them?

I can easily see mid 4th qtr, Patriots up by 24, so Belichick empties the bench on defense. Dolphins drive, score a TD and there's a back door cover.

Tennessee is a decent team with revenge facing a backup QB. IMO the spread should be a point or so higher.

Gardner Minshew and the Jags plus 8.5, I'll take it. Division games are often 1 score games and how can you bet against Minshew when he gets off the team plane dressed like Dirk Diggler.



Cincinnati got a moral victory last week, big deal I know. If that same Bengals team shows up today they'll win. Niners don't impress me, though a SF win wouldn't surprise me in the least. Gingerbread Man Dalton has been known to throw it to the wrong team on occasion.

Last game is Sunday Night Football. Falcons need this game to avoid going 0-2, but what are the Falcons known for? If you said choking games away, you would be correct. I expect a close game, decent amount of points, and some kind of Atlanta mistake late that prevents them from winning.

Good thing I'm not putting real money on the line, 1-4 last week makes me 3-7. Hopefully I've learned my lesson, we'll see.

Baltimore +6
Cincinnati +6
Atlanta +1
Pittsburgh +6.5
Cleveland +3.5

Well most of the afternoon it looked like I'd be 0-3 but some late comeback efforts saved the day. Bengals and Old Browns covered while I'm never taking Atlanta on the road again.

Week 1 (2-3)
Week 2 (1-4, 3-7 overall)
Week 3 (3-2, 6-9 overall)

The casino in Indiana has daytime hours, not 24/7 and no online options yet so this is still just for fun.

Week 4 Picks

Carolina +4.5
Cleveland +7
Tennessee +3.5
Tampa Bay +9
Arizona +5.5

Wish I did bet today, going 4-1 to even out the record at 10-10. The goal is 55% as that's roughly the break even point when you factor in the juice.

Lost a ton of people in my Survivor Pools as well, thank you Tampa Bay. I usually split picks but this year I've been doubling up, using the same team in both pools. Took Seattle over Cincinnati week 1, Baltimore week 2, then back to back picks against Miami.

One pool we are down to 15 left out of 38, the other pool has 10 left of 24, with 1 person hoping for a Steelers win tomorrow night.

Taking Philadelphia over the Jets in both survivor pools.

Normally I stay away from betting Raiders games, but since I'm still not using real money it's okay. I would love to be optimistic about their 2-2 start but they beat Denver and a banged up Colts, big deal. I bet Jon Gruden didn't even say Khalil Mack's name this week. "Men, you gotta watch out for 52 this week, he's a monster. He's a heck of a football player man, a real warrior. We can't let that number 52 be a game changer." Then you shouldn't have traded him away Chucky.

Sadly, I think Mr. Mack will wreak havoc on Derek Carr and the Raiders offense. If Mr. Mack isn't hitting him, he'll be taking on double, triple teams and someone else will smack Mr. Skittish around.

Cardinals at Bengals...both teams **** but I think this will be Kyler's coming out party.

The Minshew Mustache Adventure gets derailed for a week since Madea (Cam Newton) isn't playing. Who knew Kyle Allen was Nostradamus https://www.ispot.tv/ad/7AV2/nfl-play-60-featuring-cam-newton?

Minnesota has problems passing the ball and it seems the matchup is right with the Giants weak secondary, but not so fast. All of these "reports" about Thielen being upset and Diggs wanting out of town suggest a high level of dysfunction in the Vikings locker room. I have a feeling the Vikings are gonna win this game, but if they do I think it will be with a late score and Giants still cover.

Ever since 28-3 at halftime, Atlanta has Steve Blass syndrome. Blass was the pitcher who "got the yips" and suddenly couldn't throw the ball over the plate. I don't know how an entire team gets the same syndrome, but don't put your hard earned money on Atlanta unless you don't want to keep your money.

Chicago -5.5
Arizona +3
Carolina -3
N.Y. Giants +5.5
Houston -4.5
_________________________________________________________________________________

All my picks were early games, went 3-2 for a total of 13-12 on the season.

I took New England in both survivor pools this week. I thought it was a no brainer, but it seems I have to sweat a little. Not worried yet, I fully expect New England to turn it on in the second half after Belichick chews them out.

I was going to pick Carolina but I fell asleep too early to post, so I'm not counting it.

Houston/Kansas City Over 55
Washington -5.5
LA Rams -3
Arizona +3
NY Jets +7.5

I don't like this week's games much, a lot of games between mediocre, evenly matched teams.

Went 2-2-1 last week for a YTD of 15-14-1

For Week 7 in my Survivor pools I am going out on a limb and taking Buffalo. One pool has 8 left including me, the other 6.

Posting my picks early because I want to "lock in the number".



NY Giants -3
Indianapolis -1
Cincinnati +3.5
LA Rams -3
Seattle -3