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2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/27/2023 3:11 pm
We are 12 games in and we have a few spots clinched so it's time to look at the overall playoff picture.

American Conference

Clinched Playoff Spot: San Antonio, Oklahoma

In the Hunt: San Jose, Portland, Oakland, Houston, Chicago, Memphis, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Arizona, Denver, Detroit, Michigan, Cleveland

Pacific

San Jose has a 4 game lead with 4 to play so it should be just a matter of time before they claim the division. Southern California has been eliminated while Honolulu and Los Angeles are 2 games out of a wildcard spot.

West

Portland beat Oakland, completing the season sweep and take over possession of first place. Technically they are tied but the sweep breaks the tie. Oakland is currently the 7th seed as both teams are 7-5. Arizona (5-7) and Denver (4-7-1) are still in the wildcard hunt.

Southwest

San Antonio finally lost a game but their 11-1 record is enough for 1st place by a game over 10-2 Oklahoma. The division title is up in the air but both teams will be playing in January. Houston gave the Gunslingers their first loss and they are now 7-5, good for the current #6 seed. Memphis has won 3 in a row to get back to .500 at 6-6 and are just 1 game behind Houston/Oakland.

Midwest

This division will just have it's champion playing in January and despite a 5-7 record, Chicago leads the way. They have a 2 game lead on Michigan and Detroit, while Cleveland are 3 back.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/27/2023 3:26 pm
National Conference

Clinched Division: Pittsburgh

Clinched Playoff Spot: New Orleans

In the Hunt: Birmingham, Orlando, Philadelphia, (NY) Stars, Florida, Georgia, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville, New Jersey, Washington

Southeast

Orlando beat Florida to complete the division sweep. The Renegades finish 2007 with a 6-0 division record, which means technically 7-5 Florida is 2 games behind 8-4 Orlando. The Blazers are listed as the current #7 seed over Georgia by MFN. Tampa Bay and Jacksonville are 6-6 and closer to a wildcard spot than the division crown.

South

New Orleans has clinched a playoff spot and leads 9-2 Birmingham by 2 games with a sweep in hand. Birmingham hasn't clinched a playoff spot yet but they are the top wildcard at the moment. Georgia is 7-5 but seeded 8th according to MFN. The Force are in the thick of the wildcard race. Shreveport has been eliminated.

Atlantic

Pittsburgh has won the division and has their sights set on the #1 seed. Washington is still alive for a wildcard spot but at 4-8, the Federals need a winning streak and help. Baltimore and Charlotte have been eliminated.

East

This is a 2 team race as Philadelphia and New York are tied with 8-4 records. Currently MFN says Philadelphia has the tiebreaker and New York is the #6 seed. Will that hold up over the last 4 weeks? New Jersey is technically alive for both the division and a wildcard spot but if I'm realistic, and I said this a few games ago, we won't be playing in January. We're 5-7 and our schedule pretty much precludes us from getting in because we have a hard time with playoff caliber teams. Boston has been eliminated.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/30/2023 11:41 am
Three games to go and the whole American Conference except Southern California are still alive for a playoff spot. In the National Conference we have 8 teams fighting for the 4 available slots.

American Conference

Clinched Division: San Jose

Clinched Playoff Spot: San Antonio, Oklahoma

In the Hunt: Portland, Oakland, Chicago, Houston, Memphis, Arizona, Michigan, Denver, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Cleveland, Detroit

San Antonio and Oklahoma are neck and neck for the Southwest title and likely #1 seed. The team that doesn't win the division will be the #5 seed.

San Jose clinched the Pacific and looks like the likely #2 seed.

Portland and Oakland are tied atop the West but Portland owns the tiebreaker. Oakland is the current #6 seed.

Houston and Memphis can't win their division but the Gamblers are the current #7 seed and the Showboats are 1 game behind.

Arizona is also 1 game behind the last wildcard while Denver is 1.5 games back.

Honolulu and Los Angeles probably need to win their remaining 3 games and get some help.

Chicago still leads the Midwest at 5-8 but they've lost 4 in a row, allowing the rest of the division to stay within 2 games with 3 to play. Michigan is 1 game behind while Detroit and Cleveland are 2 back.

I'd do a remaining schedule check but with 15/16 still alive, that will take too much time.
________________________________________________________________________________

National Conference

Clinched Division: Pittsburgh

Clinched Playoff Spot: New Orleans, Birmingham

In the Hunt: Orlando, Philadelphia, New York, Florida, Georgia, Jacksonville, New Jersey, Tampa Bay

Pittsburgh is still on track for the #1 seed, will be no worse than #2 should they actually lose

New Orleans and Birmingham are still fighting for the South and both teams will play in January. The VooDoo own the tiebreaker thanks to sweeping the Stallions so they have the inside track on the division and #2 seed. The non division winner should be the #5 seed.

Orlando is now 9-4 with a 2 game lead on Florida plus a sweep in their pocket. The Renegades got off to a rough start, 0-2 then 2-3 but here they are, on the verge of another Southeast title. If they take care of business they will be the #3 or 4 seed.

Philadelphia leads the East by a game over New York, who lost to New Jersey yet again. The Stars have to play undefeated Pittsburgh next followed by Oklahoma and Philadelphia so it's no guarantee they hold onto the playoff spot they currently have. Philadelphia's schedule is softer and they likely will win the East and be the #3 or 4 seed.

At this point, we'll assume 5 of 7 spots are taken by Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Birmingham, Orlando, and Philadelphia. They aren't all taken of course, but it will make the remaining discussion easier.

New York is the current #6 seed but with that rough schedule it's very possible they finish 8-8 or 9-7. Florida is the current #7 seed with a 7-6 record but Jacksonville and Georgia are also 7-6. As luck would have it, the playoffs start now for Florida, as their remaining schedule is @ JAX, @ GA, vs JAX.

With the 7-6 teams basically playing a round robin, the door could open up for 6-7 Tampa Bay or New Jersey to sneak in but both teams have tough remaining schedules and seem like long shots.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/01/2023 2:05 am
SPOILER ALERT!!!

Stop reading if you don't want today's results revealed to you yet.

I'm doing this very soon after the game sim ran because I'm all fired up that Mark Davis finally fired Josh McDaniels and the GM. That just wasn't a good fit, and I only hope his next choice is better. How can it be worse?

*Standings Glitch*

The glitch often occurs when more than 2 teams from a division are involved. MFN says Memphis is eliminated but they aren't. They can finish 8-8 and end up in 3rd place ahead of Houston, then hope Arizona loses one of their last 2 and they're in.

I'm also not confident Oakland is actually in yet as Arizona can tie them at 9-7 with a split and identical division and conference records.

American Conference

Clinched Division: San Antonio, San Jose, Chicago

Clinched Playoff Spot: Oklahoma, Portland, Oakland *(standings glitch alert, see above)

In the Hunt: Houston, Arizona, Memphis *(standings glitch, see above)
________________________________________________________________________

Remaining Schedules

San Jose: @ Hon, vs Birm
Portland: @ Den, @ Wash
Oakland: @Pitt, vs Char
Arizona: @ Cle, vs Den
San Antonio: vs LA, @ Mem
Oklahoma: vs NY, @ NJ
Houston: vs Mem, @ So. Cal
Memphis: @ Hou, vs SA

I did not include Chicago's remaining schedule because they are locked into the #4 seed.

San Antonio has now clinched the Southwest and needs just 1 win or San Jose loss to get home field advantage.

San Jose can get the #1 seed if they win their last 2 games and San Antonio loses their last 2. San Jose could also be the #3 seed if they lose their last 2 while Oakland wins their last 2 AND wins the division. Oakland beat San Jose head to head and would be the higher seed, but only if the Invaders are West champs. San Jose beat Portland head to head so the SaberCats win a tiebreaker with the Storm.

Portland swept Oakland so they win any tie with the Invaders. Oakland split with Arizona so if they both finish 9-7, idk who wins the tiebreaker because they will also have identical division and conference records. NFL uses common opponents next but I think MFN might use net points next.

Arizona needs to win twice and possibly need help, or at the least need me to be right about the standings glitch. 8-8 could get them in depending on tiebreakers IF Houston loses twice.

Oklahoma is 1 win or 1 Oakland and Portland loss away from locking in the #5 seed and a road trip to Chicago in January.

Houston can eliminate Memphis for certain with a Week 15 victory, but to clinch a spot for themselves, they need to also win in Week 16 or have Arizona not win 1 of their last 2 (a tie or a loss work the same in this scenario).

Memphis needs to win their last 2, which would include a win over Houston, then have the Gamblers also lose Week 16, then they also need Arizona to lose at least once to finish 8-8 or worse. This would give Memphis 3rd in the Southwest and they would win a tiebreaker over Arizona with a better conference record.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/01/2023 3:32 am
National Conference

Clinched Division: Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Orlando

Clinched Wildcard: Birmingham

In the Hunt: Jacksonville, (NY) Stars, New Jersey, Florida, Georgia
__________________________________________________________________________

5 teams fighting for 2 spots

Pittsburgh has a 1 game lead on New Orleans for home field advantage and the bye

Philadelphia and Orlando are jockeying for 3rd and 4th seed, with the 3rd seed avoiding Birmingham in the first round.

Birmingham is locked in as the #5 seed.

Jacksonville is listed as the current #6 seed, New York #7

New Jersey, Florida, and Georgia are all 7-7, 1 game behind Jacksonville and New York

Remaining Schedules

Jacksonville: @ Mich, @ Fla
(NY) Stars: @ Okl, vs Phil
New Jersey: vs Phil, vs Okl
Florida: @ GA, vs Jax
Georgia: vs Fla, @ Orl

Battle for #1 seed

Pittsburgh: vs Oak, @ Balt
New Orleans: @ So. Cal, vs LA

Battle for #3 seed

Orlando: @ Shr, vs GA
Philadelphia: @ NJ, @ NY
Last edited at 11/01/2023 3:33 am

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/03/2023 1:57 am
SPOILER ALERT

I am posting this based on Week 15 scores, if you don't want your result spoiled, stop reading.

The standings glitch affects Memphis and Florida as neither are eliminated. Florida just needs to beat Jacksonville while Memphis needs a win and a Houston loss.

American Conference

#1 seed San Antonio

Other Division Winners: San Jose (#2), Portland (#3), Chicago (#4)

Wildcard: Oklahoma (#5), Oakland (#6)

In the Hunt: Houston, Memphis
____________________________________________________________________

The seeds are all set so Wildcard Weekend for this conference will be...

#7 Houston/Memphis @ #2 San Jose
#6 Oakland @ #3 Portland
#5 Oklahoma @ #4 Chicago

Memphis is not eliminated because if they win and Houston loses, Memphis wins the tiebreaker with a better division record.

Houston will be the #7 seed if they win and/or if Memphis loses as the Gamblers lost to Oakland in the regular season to give the Invaders the #6 seed.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/03/2023 2:01 am
In the event of a 3 way tie at 8-8 between Houston, Memphis, and Arizona, I would first have to determine 3rd place in the Southwest which we've established would be Memphis in an 8-8 scenario. Memphis would win the tiebreaker with Arizona based on better conference record.

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/03/2023 2:31 am
The National Conference is less clear as I can't confirm Pittsburgh has the #1 seed locked up. Should the Maulers lose and New Orleans wins, it goes to the unknown MFN tiebreaker after conference record, which is supposed to be common games but I think it might be net points.

I'm also not sure that the New York Stars have a playoff spot if they lose and Florida wins.

What I do know is if Florida beats Jacksonville they are in the playoffs as they will have a better division record. They did just lose to Jacksonville 42-0 in Week 14 so idk how likely a Blazers win is, but that's why they play the games right?

Back to New York. Should they lose and Florida wins, the Blazers would be the #6 seed over New York. According to NFL rules, in a 3 way tie you eliminate all but the top team in the same division, which would eliminate Jacksonville FROM THIS TIEBREAKER ONLY, which is for the #6 seed. Florida wins based on better conference record.

Now we go back and break the tie between Jacksonville and New York, and they would have identical conference records. Like I said before, idk what the next tiebreaker is that MFN uses but I suspect Jacksonville might win because they are currently tied across the board and MFN lists Jacksonville as the current #6 and New York #7.

If Jacksonville beats Florida, New York is in regardless of their result.

National Conference

Division Winners: Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Orlando

Confirmed Wildcard Team: Birmingham

In The Hunt *(According to me): Jacksonville, Florida, (NY) Stars

MFN Says They're In, I beg to differ: (NY) Stars

MFN Says Eliminated, I beg to differ: Florida

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By Cjfred68
11/05/2023 12:04 am
Considering me defense sucks and my top 2 CBs are out for the rest of the season & postseason.....It's in my best interest to lose week 16 and miss the playoffs.

Unfortunately I don't have it in me to "tank for tua" so I'm probably gonna win in week 16 something like 38-31....make the postseason....and get destroyed in the first round by a team that does nothing but pass the ball....LMAO!!!!

Come on Sun.....I'm cheering for you!!!

Memphis swept me this season and are more deserving anyway!!!

Re: 2007 Playoff Races

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
11/05/2023 7:06 am
Cjfred68 wrote:
Considering me defense sucks and my top 2 CBs are out for the rest of the season & postseason.....It's in my best interest to lose week 16 and miss the playoffs.

Unfortunately I don't have it in me to "tank for tua" so I'm probably gonna win in week 16 something like 38-31....make the postseason....and get destroyed in the first round by a team that does nothing but pass the ball....LMAO!!!!

Come on Sun.....I'm cheering for you!!!

Memphis swept me this season and are more deserving anyway!!!


I'll save a seat for you in the viewing lounge for eliminated teams, I'm already getting things set up.