I wasn't going to respond to any of these threads because I find them bizarre and unenforceable. Even if a GM has 30 plays on defense and 40 on offense and has them set to be called all equally, the AI is going to sometimes randomly call one or more plays 10+ times and others 0 because of the RNG.
But...
Since my name keeps getting brought up in all these threads, incorrectly I will add, as the progenitor of some one play defensive scheme, let me tell you how my defensive game planning actually works.
1) I download an arbitrary number of previous games that my opponent has played.
2) I feed all of them into a SQL database where I use a view to turn the CSV files into meaningful data - plays run, number of times a play was run, what down it was run on, etc.
3) I then join this view to a different view that I use to analyze aggregate data from various leagues that I use to determine the effectiveness of defenses against offensive plays.
4) Based on the plays my opponent is running and the past effectiveness of my defensive playcalling against those plays, I make certain judgment calls on what plays I'm going to call against what sets on what downs. I usually try to find one or two plays that work best against the plays my opponent is going to call. [Discovering an exploit like the McKeon sacksploit of 1989 actually skews my data in not-so-meaningful ways to the point where I should probably exclude all of McKeon's sacks to get real numbers again ... I digress.]
So my defensive playcalling has always been dictated by my opponent (and a lesser degree McKeon skewing my data so badly), and it always will be. I'm not just using plays arbitrarily. I'm using plays that I have seen work well in the past against particular plays my opponent runs. The only advantage I have over some GMs is that instead of looking at one or two games, I could look at all of them in a matter of minutes if I wanted to using hard data instead of observational data.
I don't know what others are doing, but personally, I find Holly and 4343 to be some of the more challenging GMs to game plan against now.
So let me tell you how my game planning will change if this rule goes through. TL/DR: It won't.
If you want me to call more plays per game on defense, which I find pretty strange since the McKeon rule was supposed to end the advantage the 46 Heavy had (except I told you it all the advantage the 46 Heavy has is its spacing of the field), here's what I'll do. I'll just rewrite my game planning queries.
I'll follow most of the same steps above, but instead I'll do an additional join. Instead of just looking for a few plays that work best against a set in downs and distance, I'll have the query return the top three or four for that set and plug them all in.
It would actually be more effective than what I'm doing now to be honest.
And now you know how the Seth Defense really, truly works.
Last edited at 8/19/2020 5:43 pm