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Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/23/2020 1:47 pm
I'll do the National Conference in a bit.

American Conference

Division Winners Michigan, Houston, Denver, Southern California

Wildcard Hunt Cleveland, Memphis, Arizona, Portland, Oklahoma

Southern California is locked in as the #4 seed. Michigan, Houston, and Denver are all in play for the coveted BYE week. At 12-1-1, Michigan has the upper hand in the race for home field advantage. Houston and Denver are tied at 12-2 but the Gamblers defeated the Gold in Week 2 for the tiebreaker edge.

Remaining Schedule

Michigan vs Chi, vs Det
Houston @ SA, @ Pitt
Denver @ NO, vs Ari

We should have some wildcard clarity, or more confusion after tonight's games. Four of the five teams in the hunt for the wildcard play each other tonight. Three of the five face possible elimination tonight.

Remaining Schedule

Arizona vs Port, @ Den
Portland @ Ari, vs SA
Memphis @ Okl, @ LA
Oklahoma vs Mem, @ Wash
Cleveland vs Det, vs Phi

Arizona will be eliminated with a loss and wins by Memphis and Cleveland tonight

Portland will be eliminated with a loss to Arizona

Oklahoma will be eliminated with a loss to Memphis

If Memphis and/or Cleveland lose tonight, they won't be eliminated but they won't help themselves either.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/23/2020 2:42 pm
In some ways the National Conference is easy...we have 8 teams fighting for 6 spots. In other ways it's a mess...only 1 division race has been decided which makes figuring out tiebreakers a pain in the ****.

National Conference

Division Winner/BYE Week New Orleans

MFN says they're in Tampa Bay, Baltimore

In the hunt Orlando, Jacksonville, Washington, (NY) Stars, New Jersey

Tampa Bay has qualified for the playoffs but we don't know if they'll be a division winner or wildcard. I can't disprove that Baltimore has qualified and their 10-4 record has them in the drivers seat for a playoff spot even if I can disprove it now. For instance, why has Baltimore clinched and not Orlando?

Trying to figure these scenarios is making my head hurt because we only have 1 division decided. The wildcard tiebreakers are different than division tiebreakers and I don't know which set to look at. Rather than try and cover every possibility, I'll let tonight's games play out and things should clear up.

Remaining Schedules

Tampa Bay vs Jax, @ Balt
Orlando @ NY, vs SJ
Jacksonville @ TB, @ NJ

New Orleans vs Den, vs Shr

Baltimore @ Birm, vs TB
Washington vs NJ, vs Okl

New York vs Orl, vs Bos
New Jersey @ Wash, vs Jax

We have 3 key games tonight that should really help clear up this playoff picture:

Jacksonville @ Tampa Bay
Orlando @ New York
New Jersey @ Washington

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By Hellbringer
4/24/2020 8:49 am
Is there such thing as home field advantage? Like an actual bonus?

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/24/2020 11:19 am
Hellbringer wrote:
Is there such thing as home field advantage? Like an actual bonus?


I think I've read crowd noise is a factor.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/24/2020 11:49 am
American Conference

BYE Week Michigan, Houston

Seeds #3 and 4 Denver, Southern California

Wildcard Chase Memphis, Cleveland, Arizona

Things are real clear in the American Conference. Michigan and Houston will be the top 2 seeds, order to be determined. Denver is the #3 seed, Southern California the #4.

Memphis and Cleveland just need to win to get in, while Arizona needs to win and have one of Mem/Cle lose.

National Conference

Home Field Advantage New Orleans

Division Winners Baltimore, New York

In the playoffs Tampa Bay, Washington

Standings Glitch Possibility Orlando, Jacksonville

The New Orleans VooDoo have earned home field advantage. The New York (NY) Stars win the East and it appears Baltimore has in fact won the Atlantic. I looked at the tiebreakers and I believe if tied, Baltimore would best Washington based on common games.

Speaking of Washington, they're in as a wildcard.Tampa Bay will make the playoffs but seed is TBD. The Bandits could win the division or be a wildcard.

I believe the standings glitch is coming into play in this conference. If the little e's are to be believed, Orlando should have an X next to them. They don't, so one of the little e's could be wrong.

We have 3 teams that could possibly end up 10-6, as Jacksonville and New Jersey, both 9-6 currently, play each other in Week 16. If my Generals win, we're still out. We lost head to head to both Orlando and Washington, so we lose all tiebreakers.

If Jacksonville wins to go 10-6, they could be tied with just Washington or both Washington and Orlando. The Bulls lost to the Federals, so we're left with a 3 way tie possibility. The first thing to do in a 3 way tie is to eliminate all but 1 team from each division, so we have to break the Orlando/Jacksonville tie first.

This is where it gets difficult. If the Renegades and Bulls both end up 10-6, they'll have split their 2 games, have the same division record, same conference record, and same record vs common opponents. I don't know the next tiebreaker because I think this is where JDB diverges from the NFL. I'm pretty sure net points is next in MFN, so Jacksonville would need to crush me by 60-70 points.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/24/2020 3:57 pm
The order of tiebreakers is important in case Tampa Bay loses and end up tied with Orlando for the division. Tampa Bay is currently marked as division winner, and if common opponents comes before conference record this is correct.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By Mcarovil
4/25/2020 11:24 am
I haven’t looked but conference record does come before common opponents
raidergreg69 wrote:
The order of tiebreakers is important in case Tampa Bay loses and end up tied with Orlando for the division. Tampa Bay is currently marked as division winner, and if common opponents comes before conference record this is correct.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/25/2020 1:05 pm
Mcarovil wrote:
I haven’t looked but conference record does come before common opponents
raidergreg69 wrote:
The order of tiebreakers is important in case Tampa Bay loses and end up tied with Orlando for the division. Tampa Bay is currently marked as division winner, and if common opponents comes before conference record this is correct.


To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory.
Strength of schedule.
Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
Best net points in common games.
Best net points in all games.
Best net touchdowns in all games.
Coin toss

That's the NFL list of tiebreakers, which we are supposed to follow. MFN doesn't follow it exactly though. We had a situation in World League a few seasons back where I thought I made the playoffs erroneously. JDB came and said net points was the reason, which means MFN does it out of order, despite JDB saying we use NFL rules.

Last edited at 4/25/2020 1:08 pm

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By Cjfred68
4/25/2020 1:56 pm
That's the tricky thing....in division the conference record drops in importance compared to two teams in different divisions.

Re: Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
4/25/2020 2:13 pm
Cjfred68 wrote:
That's the tricky thing....in division the conference record drops in importance compared to two teams in different divisions.


Probably because division rivals have 14 common games while non divisional teams have less.