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Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/03/2024 7:08 am
Just in case the title didn't clue you in, these are the playoff races heading into the final week. That means SPOILER ALERT!!! If you do not know your Week 15 result yet, quit reading this now or I'll spoil it for you.

American Conference

Clinched Division: San Antonio, San Jose, Michigan, Denver

Wildcards: Honolulu, Oklahoma, Houston

All that is left to determine for the American Conference is seeding.

San Antonio controls their destiny for home field and the BYE because they beat San Jose and Michigan head to head. If they beat Washington they get the BYE.

San Jose will be the #2 seed at worst because they beat Michigan head to head. If they win and San Antonio loses they get the BYE.

Michigan will be the #3 seed as they lost to the San's, San Antonio and San Jose while they beat Denver.

AI Denver will be the 4th seed.

Honolulu, Oklahoma, and Houston will be your wildcard teams in some order. I'll work out the tiebreakers after I wake up, I'm getting sleepy.

There is no standings glitch for this conference. Houston beat Chicago head to head so should they both finish 9-7, Houston wins the tiebreaker.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/03/2024 7:34 am
I see a standings glitch in the National Conference that I'll explain later in this post.

National Conference

Clinched Division: Pittsburgh, New Orleans, New Jersey* (according to me, not MFN)

Clinched Wildcard: Jacksonville, Washington *(according to MFN, I have not confirmed either team yet)

In the Hunt: Orlando, Birmingham, Philadelphia, Boston

Like I said in the earlier post, I'm going to have to do the tiebreakers after I wake up as I'm getting sleepy. There are several different possible combinations of 10-6 teams to work through and I just can't deal with that right now after working all night.

I did go through some tiebreakers because the first step in 3 or more team ties is to break division ties first. If Jacksonville and Orlando end up tied, Jacksonville swept Orlando and would win the division.

Pittsburgh beat New Orleans 27-10 Week 14 to take control of the BYE. If they beat AI Georgia, the BYE is theirs.

We could have as many as 6 teams tied at 10-6...Jacksonville, Orlando, Washington, New Jersey, Philadelphia, and Boston. That's why I have yet to confirm Jacksonville and Washington are in. How can they be in when the other 4 are not? It will take me awhile to attempt to answer that.

Jacksonville did sweep Orlando but what if Jacksonville loses while Orlando wins? Orlando would win the division and Jacksonville would go into the pool of 10-6 teams.

That being said, I do believe my Generals have won the East despite MFN not giving me a designation. If I lose to Philadelphia we'll both be 10-6, plus Boston can win and be 10-6. Unfortunately for the Breakers, it's looking like they need to win and get help. In a 3 way tie, first NFL tiebreaker is head to head between the teams...New Jersey is currently 3-0 but a 3 way tie means they lose to Philadelphia Week 16, making them 3-1 vs Philly and Boston. Philly would also be 3-1 while Boston would be 0-4. If MFN uses division records first in a 3 way tie, Boston is still the odd team out.

That leaves a Philly/New Jersey tiebreaker, which New Jersey would win based on better division record (NJ 5-0 currently, Philly 3-2). Unless I'm overlooking something I see no way I'm not already East champs.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/03/2024 7:52 am
This is more for my benefit after I wake up but possible tiebreak scenarios...

Jacksonville or Orlando/Washington/Philadelphia/Boston

Jacksonville or Orlando/Washington/Philadelphia

Jacksonville or Orlando/Washington/Boston

Jacksonville or Orlando/Philadelphia/Boston

Jacksonville or Orlando/Washington

Jacksonville or Orlando/Philadelphia

Jacksonville or Orlando/Boston

Washington/Philadelphia/Boston

Washington/Philadelphia

Washington/Boston

Philadelphia/Boston

Honolulu/Oklahoma/Houston

Honolulu/Oklahoma

Honolulu/Houston

Oklahoma/Houston

Re: Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/04/2024 12:11 pm
I don't know if I can make this make sense so I guess I'll go team by team. I'm working it out as I go, sort of. I've looked over a lot of thimgs already but there are so many permutations involved, like is it a 2 team tie, 3 team, etc.

Jacksonville shows as in by MFM but are they? They win the tiebreaker over Orlando so if they win they win the Southeast. If they lose and Orlando loses, they also win the division. Things get interesting if Jacksonville loses and Orlando wins as Orlando would win the division and Jacksonville would have to sweat other results. They beat Washington but lost to both Philadelphia and Boston.

Orlando will be in with a win over Boston. If Jacksonville also wins, Orlando is a wildcard, if Jacksonville loses while Orlando wins, the Renegades are Southeast champs. If they lose to Boston, they are in the 10-6 sweat pool, as they already lost to Philadelphia and will have lost to Boston.

Birmingham is 9-5-1 and they need to win and hope 10-5-1 edges out enough teams to be a top 7 seed. If Birmingham loses, they need both Orlando and New Jersey to win to get in as a #7 seed.

Washington plays San Antonio, who is playing for home field advantage. A Federals win puts them in while a loss puts them in the 10-6 sweat pool.

I have looked and re-looked and I still see no way I'm not already East Champ. I win both a 2 way and 3 way tie even if I lose to Philadelphia tonight.

Philadelphia and Boston are both 9-6 and must win to get in. Will a win be enough or will they need help? A loss guarantees they won't make it.

If all 3 East contenders finish 10-6, the order would be New Jersey 1st, Philadelphia 2nd and Boston 3rd.

Two way ties are broken by head to head first. Three way ties require a head to head sweep of all teams, or losing to all teams (all tied teams that is). Next step is conference record.

Starting over with Jacksonville...only way they are involved in a tiebreaker for a wildcard spot is if they lose and Orlando wins, any other set of results means Jacksonville wins the division. In this case, Birmingham is key. If Birmingham loses, Jacksonville is in no matter what. If Birmingham upsets New Orleans, and Orlando wins, they need New Jersey to win. If Birmingham, Orlando, and Philadelphia all win, Jacksonville loses a 2 way tiebreaker against Philadelphia (h2h loss) and a 3 way tie with Philadelphia and Washington (Washington has 8-4 conference record and advances, leaving a 2 way tie between PHI/JAX, which PHI wins).

I covered Orlando winning above but what if they are in the 10-6 sweat pool? It's pretty much like Jacksonville, they need New Orleans and New Jersey to win. Orlando does not have the conference record to win a tie with Washington and they've already lost to Philadelphia and will have lost to Boston.

Washington is in fact in the playoffs. Their 8-4 conference record wins them the tiebreakers in any scenario I came up with.

Philadelphia needs to beat New Jersey and get help. Simplest help would be New Orleans beating Birmingham. Should the Stallions pull the upset, Philadelphia would need one of Jacksonville or Orlando to lose.

Boston needs to beat Orlando and have New Orleans beat Birmingham. Should the Stallions pull the upset, then Boston would need New Jersey to beat Philadelphia.

I hope I have this correct, and much like investing, DYOR, but I think this info is correct. Good luck tonight.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/04/2024 12:25 pm
Birmingham is actually win and in.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Picture

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
10/04/2024 12:29 pm
Jacksonville Win and in. Lose and hope one of Orlando, Birmingham, or Philadelphia loses.

Orlando Win and in. Lose, and they need New Orleans and New Jersey to win.

Birmingham Win and in. Lose and they need both Philadelphia and Boston to lose.

Philadelphia Win and Birmingham lose, or win and one of Jacksonville or Orlando to lose

Boston Win and Birmingham lose, or win and Philadelphia lose