I don't know if I can make this make sense so I guess I'll go team by team. I'm working it out as I go, sort of. I've looked over a lot of thimgs already but there are so many permutations involved, like is it a 2 team tie, 3 team, etc.
Jacksonville shows as in by MFM but are they? They win the tiebreaker over Orlando so if they win they win the Southeast. If they lose and Orlando loses, they also win the division. Things get interesting if Jacksonville loses and Orlando wins as Orlando would win the division and Jacksonville would have to sweat other results. They beat Washington but lost to both Philadelphia and Boston.
Orlando will be in with a win over Boston. If Jacksonville also wins, Orlando is a wildcard, if Jacksonville loses while Orlando wins, the Renegades are Southeast champs. If they lose to Boston, they are in the 10-6 sweat pool, as they already lost to Philadelphia and will have lost to Boston.
Birmingham is 9-5-1 and they need to win and hope 10-5-1 edges out enough teams to be a top 7 seed. If Birmingham loses, they need both Orlando and New Jersey to win to get in as a #7 seed.
Washington plays San Antonio, who is playing for home field advantage. A Federals win puts them in while a loss puts them in the 10-6 sweat pool.
I have looked and re-looked and I still see no way I'm not already East Champ. I win both a 2 way and 3 way tie even if I lose to Philadelphia tonight.
Philadelphia and Boston are both 9-6 and must win to get in. Will a win be enough or will they need help? A loss guarantees they won't make it.
If all 3 East contenders finish 10-6, the order would be New Jersey 1st, Philadelphia 2nd and Boston 3rd.
Two way ties are broken by head to head first. Three way ties require a head to head sweep of all teams, or losing to all teams (all tied teams that is). Next step is conference record.
Starting over with Jacksonville...only way they are involved in a tiebreaker for a wildcard spot is if they lose and Orlando wins, any other set of results means Jacksonville wins the division. In this case, Birmingham is key. If Birmingham loses, Jacksonville is in no matter what. If Birmingham upsets New Orleans, and Orlando wins, they need New Jersey to win. If Birmingham, Orlando, and Philadelphia all win, Jacksonville loses a 2 way tiebreaker against Philadelphia (h2h loss) and a 3 way tie with Philadelphia and Washington (Washington has 8-4 conference record and advances, leaving a 2 way tie between PHI/JAX, which PHI wins).
I covered Orlando winning above but what if they are in the 10-6 sweat pool? It's pretty much like Jacksonville, they need New Orleans and New Jersey to win. Orlando does not have the conference record to win a tie with Washington and they've already lost to Philadelphia and will have lost to Boston.
Washington is in fact in the playoffs. Their 8-4 conference record wins them the tiebreakers in any scenario I came up with.
Philadelphia needs to beat New Jersey and get help. Simplest help would be New Orleans beating Birmingham. Should the Stallions pull the upset, Philadelphia would need one of Jacksonville or Orlando to lose.
Boston needs to beat Orlando and have New Orleans beat Birmingham. Should the Stallions pull the upset, then Boston would need New Jersey to beat Philadelphia.
I hope I have this correct, and much like investing, DYOR, but I think this info is correct. Good luck tonight.