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Week 16 Playoff Picture (SPOILER ALERT!!!)

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
5/27/2024 3:07 am
The games just ended an hour ago so if you don't know your Week 15 result yet, stop reading or it could get spoiled for you.

American Conference

#1 Seed: Winner of San Jose @ Honolulu

#2 seed: Houston or San Antonio

#3 seed: Michigan

#4 seed: Oakland

#5 seed San Jose/Honolulu loser; or San Antonio

#6 seed: Houston if they lose, or San Jose, Honolulu, or San Antonio

#7 seed: Oklahoma
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National Conference

#1 seed: New Orleans

#2 and #3 seeds: Washington and Philadelphia, order tbd

#4 seed: Jacksonville

#5 seed: Birmingham

#6 seed: New Jersey or Pittsburgh

#7 seed: New Jersey or New York
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San Jose travels to Honolulu in a winner take all game for the Pacific Division and #1 seed. A tie game would also give San Jose the division and the #1 seed.

Houston just needs to beat Detroit to win the Southwest and claim the #2 seed. Should Houston lose, San Antonio would win the division if they beat Tampa Bay.

Michigan and Oakland have clinched their division and their playoff seeding, with Michigan the #3 and Oakland #4.

Oklahoma is locked in as the #7 seed and will travel to Texas for the Wildcard Round, city tbd.

Concerning the #5 and #6 seeds, they will be filled by some combination of San Jose, Honolulu, Houston or San Antonio. If San Jose loses they will be 13-3, which could leave them tied with a 13-3 San Antonio team and idk who wins the tiebreaker as it's whatever is after conference record. Honolulu won't be in any tiebreaker unless they lose and one of Houston or San Antonio ties.

Houston can not be the #5 seed. If they win, they also win the division and will be the #2 seed. The Gamblers also win the division with a loss and a San Antonio loss. Should Houston lose and San Antonio wins, Houston would be 12-4 and the #6 seed behind the loser of San Jose/Honolulu.

San Antonio has a range of possibilities. They could win and Houston lose, giving the Gunslingers the division. They could both win, leaving the Gunslingers to wait on the San Jose/Honolulu result to see where they're seeded. They could also lose to Tampa Bay, which would make them the #6 seed.
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New Orleans beat Detroit to clinch home field advantage. Washington beat Philadelphia head to head and will be the #2 seed unless they lose to Boston while Philadelphia beats Charlotte. Either way Washington and Philadelphia will be the #2 and #3 seeds in some order.

Jacksonville is locked into the #4 seed while Birmingham is locked into the #5 seed and will travel to Florida to face the Bulls in the Wildcard Round.

Pittsburgh, New York, and New Jersey could wind up ensnared in a bizarre 3 way tie that could result in Pittsburgh and New Jersey making the playoffs with losses while New York could be eliminated even with a win. MFN says New York is eliminated but they're not.

Pittsburgh is in with a win

New Jersey is in the playoffs regardless of their game or the Pitt/NY game

New York is in with a win AND a New Jersey win.

If New York wins while New Jersey loses, Pittsburgh backs into the playoffs.

Why? Good question and I'll attempt to answer.

Currently Pittsburgh and New Jersey are tied at 9-6 with New York 8-7. New York plays Pittsburgh Week 16 and a win would make both teams 9-7 with the Stars owning the tiebreaker against the Maulers. If New Jersey loses Week 16, a New York win would create a 3 way tie at 9-7.

In a 3 way tiebreaker between Pitt/NJ/NY, first we must break the NJ/NY tie since they are in the same division. New Jersey swept New York, giving the Generals the tiebreaker so the 3 way becomes a 2 way between Pittsburgh and New Jersey. The Maulers won head to head so they would be the #6 seed, leaving New Jersey and New York tied for #7, where the Generals sweep gives them the spot.

That would be a cruel way to miss the playoffs...beat the team directly ahead of you only to miss out because your QBless division rival can't beat a 1 win team but it is a possibility.

Good luck guys.