The National Conference is all set except for wildcard seeding while there are still 3 spots up for grabs in the American Conference.
National Conference#1 seed Washington
#2 seed Orlando
#3 seed New Jersey
#4 seed Shreveport
Wildcards Florida and Baltimore
Florida and Baltimore are currently tied with 9-6 records and the Blazers beat the Stars for the tiebreaker. Florida will travel to either Shreveport or New Jersey with Baltimore going where the Steamer don't.
American ConferenceClinched BYE: Houston
Clinched Division: San Jose, Portland
Clinched Wildcard: Denver
In The Hunt: Chicago, Michigan, Detroit, Los Angeles, Memphis
What we know: Regardless of Week 16 results, Houston will have a 1st round BYE because their main competitors play each other. A Gamblers win gives them home field advantage, while a loss puts them in a tiebreaker with the winner of San Jose and Portland. The SaberCats and Storm are both 13-2 and play each other Week 16. The winner gets at least a BYE while the loser will play wildcard weekend as the #3 seed. If San Jose wins and Houston loses, the SaberCats get home field thanks to their regular season win over Houston. If Portland wins while Houston loses, the tiebreaker will come down to common games and I'm not going to figure that out right now.
Denver is locked in as the #5 seed and will travel to either Chicago, Michigan, or Detroit.
Who wins the Midwest? Chicago does if they beat San Antonio, or with a loss
PLUS losses for Michigan and Detroit.
Michigan wins the Midwest with a win over Orlando and a Chicago loss.
Detroit wins the Midwest with a win over Denver and losses by Chicago and Michigan.
That leaves the #6 seed to be determined, and it could be a jumbled mess.
MFN says Memphis currently holds the #6 seed but we could end up with a 4 way tie.
Los Angeles, Memphis, Chicago and Michigan are all 9-6 while Detroit could be involved with losses by LA, Mem, and Mich. Someone has to win the Midwest and in a multi team wildcard tiebreaker, we only take 1 from each division. The first tie to be broken would be in the Midwest to determine who is 2nd place and who gets 3rd, if applicable. Detroit swept Michigan, and if they beat Denver, they would have a conference record of 7-5.
Possible Wildcard TiebreakersLA/Mem If it comes down to these 2 teams, it depends if they both win or both lose. They did not play and have the same conference record, so according to NFL tiebreakers, common games is next. Their common opponents are Honolulu, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Portland. The Express were 4-1 in those games, Memphis 3-1 with a week 16 game against Honolulu. If they both win, the next tiebreaker would be used, which NFL says is strength of victory while I believe MFN uses net points.
LA/Chi Same as above, common opponents. LA is 4-1 against Southern California, Arizona, Cleveland and San Antonio while Chicago is 3-1 with a game against the Gunslingers pending. Los Angeles has the net points edge on Chicago fwiw.
LA/Mich LA has the tiebreaker over Michigan win or lose. If both win, the Express advance based on better conference record, both lose and it's common opponents. The Express went 4-1 against San Antonio, Portland, Cleveland and Honolulu while Michigan was 3-2.
Mem/Chi Memphis beat Chicago Week 2
Mem/Mich Michigan beat Memphis Week 4
I didn't do any 2 team tiebreakers with Detroit because if the Wheels are involved, it will be a 3 team tie. Detroit must win and have losses by Michigan, Memphis and Los Angeles to be considered...Chicago's result does and does not matter. Let's assume Detroit wins while LA, Mem, and Mich all lose. They would all be 9-7, waiting on Chicago. If Chicago were to win, they win the Midwest and Detroit would be in a 3 way tie with LA and Mem. If Chicago were to lose too, Detroit would win the Midwest while Chicago and Michigan go to tiebreakers. Chicago would be in the mix in this case as their 4-2 record is better than Michigan's 3-3 in the division.
LA/Mem/Det In this scenario they all would be 9-7 and Detroit's 7-5 conference record would have them advance over 6-6 LA and Mem.
LA/Mem/Chi In this scenario I have no clue. They would all have the same conference record and they don't have 4 common opponents, so it's up to MFN. Best net points???
