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Week 16 Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
6/07/2021 11:29 am
Here we are headed into the final week of the regular season and we have a ton of playoff possibilities. We also have the standings glitch come into play as MFN erroneously says Detroit won the Midwest. If Michigan wins and Detroit loses, Michigan wins the Midwest thanks to a better division record.

San Jose #4 seed

Denver MFN is correct about Denver as the Gold win every tiebreaker against anyone they can tie with. If Denver beats Houston, the Gold win the West and will have the #1 seed. If Denver loses, they can still win the West with a Portland loss but would be a wildcard regardless.

Portland If Portland wins they will be at least a wildcard and would need Denver to lose to win the West. A Portland loss would possibly put them into tiebreakers for a wildcard spot and the Storm's only problem would be a tie with Memphis, as the Showboats beat them.

Houston A Houston win over Denver would give the Southwest to the Gamblers and likely the #1 seed, but that would involve a tiebreaker after common games. A Houston loss and a Memphis win means Houston goes to wildcard tiebreakers. I think Houston wins all tiebreakers except against Portland, thanks to better common opponents with Detroit and a better conference record than Michigan.

Memphis Need to beat Florida and have Denver beat Houston to win the Southwest. A win and a Houston win puts Memphis into wildcard tiebreakers.

Detroit A win over Chicago and Detroit wins the Midwest, where they would be anywhere from #1 seed to #3. A loss and Michigan win gives the division to the Panthers, meaning wildcard tiebreakers.

Michigan A win and Detroit loss gives Michigan the Midwest. A win plus a Detroit win and Michigan has to watch the scoreboard.
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2 way Tiebreakers

Denver/Portland...Denver wins based on Conference Record
Denver/Memphis...Denver beat Memphis Week 3
Denver/Detroit...Denver Conference Record
Denver/Michigan...Denver Conference Record

Portland/Houston...Portland beat Houston Week 15
Portland/Memphis...Memphis beat Portland Week 11
Portland/Detroit...Portland wins based on common games (Portland 5-0 vs Arizona, Michigan, San Jose, and Oklahoma while Detroit was 4-1 in the same games)
Portland/Michigan...Portland beat Michigan Week 13

Houston/Memphis...Memphis wins based on common opponents
Houston/Detroit...This one is murky because we have to use common opponents and must wait on the Detroit/Chicago game. If both Houston and Detroit win, the fight for the #1 seed goes to whatever tiebreaker is after common games since they would both be 5-0 against Arizona, Oklahoma, Honolulu and Chicago. If both lose, then Houston wins the common games tiebreaker as a Wheels loss would make them 4-1 against the same opponents Houston went 5-0 against.

Houston/Michigan...Houston Conference record

Memphis/Michigan...Michigan beat Memphis Week 4
Memphis/Detroit...Memphis??? Common opponents are tied at 4-1 for each so I think Memphis wins but I really don't know for sure

3 way tiebreakers

Denver/Memphis/Detroit...Denver Conference Record
Denver/Memphis/Michigan...Denver Conference Record

Portland/Houston/Detroit...No clue as they all would have 9-3 conference records and not enough common opponents to go there. Portland has the best net points followed by Houston.
Portland/Memphis/Detroit...Same as above
Portland/Houston/Michigan...Portland beat both and would advance
Portland/Memphis/Michigan...Memphis. First we eliminate Michigan based on conference record, reverting to the two team tiebreaker which Memphis has over Portland.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
6/07/2021 11:35 am
National Conference

MFN says Baltimore is the #1 seed already and I can't refute that. If Washington beats Baltimore, they will have split their 2 games and have the same division record, conference record and common opponents record. The next tiebreaker is unclear but Baltimore has a big lead in net points.

That leaves the #2 seed as the only drama. Florida beat New Jersey so the Generals need to beat Philadelphia and have Memphis beat Florida to be the #2 seed, otherwise New Jersey will play Philadelphia 2 weeks in a row.

Re: Week 16 Playoff Scenarios

By raidergreg69 - League Admin
6/07/2021 11:43 am
I wish I could provide more clarity on these deep tiebreakers but this standings glitch and inconsistent tiebreakers between MFN and the NFL have me grasping at straws. That, and the sheer number of teams with similar records. I'm not complaining though, as this has been one of the most competitive seasons I can remember. It's a lot more fun having Week 16 chaos rather than have everything sewn up already.

Best of luck to those still fighting for seeds/playoff spots.