2011 Playoff Picture

I'll do the Week 12 write ups later, I need a break before I do 16 more games today. I can take a look at the playoff races though.

Pacific: San Jose has won 8 straight games after an 0-4 start and the SaberCats now lead the division by 1 game over Honolulu. The Hawaiians find themselves on the outside looking in despite a 7-5 record as the wildcard race is quite jumbled in the American Conference. Southern California and Los Angeles have been eliminated.

West: Portland started out hot at 6-0 but their recent 3-3 stretch includes a pair of losses to the Denver Gold. Both teams are tied at the top with 9-3 records with the Gold owning the tiebreaker thanks to their sweep. Oakland (7-4-1) is a half game out of the last wildcard spot while Arizona is eliminated.

Southwest: San Antonio (11-1) has a 2 game division lead and a 2 game lead for home field advantage. Houston is 9-3, 2 games back with a split in their 2 games against the Gunslingers. Memphis is 8-4 and owns the current #7 seed while Oklahoma is hanging around at 7-5, hoping for some breaks down the stretch.

Midwest: Michigan is 7-5 with a 3 game lead on Detroit and Chicago. With just 4 games left to play, Michigan would have to really screw up to not win this division, although the Wheels and Blitz do still have a chance. Cleveland has been eliminated.

American Conf. Wildcard Race: The current wildcard teams are Portland (9-3), Houston (9-3), and Memphis (8-4). On the outside looking in...Oakland (7-4-1), Honolulu (7-5), and Oklahoma (7-5). MFN lists Detroit and Chicago as well but their best bet is to catch Michigan as there are too many teams in the way for a realistic wildcard shot.

Now the National Conference...

Southeast: Jacksonville and Orlando are tied at the top with 8-4 records. Jacksonville won the first meeting with the rematch coming Week 14. Jacksonville is currently 4-0 in division, Orlando 2-2 so a Bulls loss in Week 14 doesn't mean they lose the tiebreaker. Tampa Bay is in 3rd with a 6-5-1 record and the Bandits are the current #7 seed. Florida is 3-9 but mathematically alive for the playoffs.

South: New Orleans is the last undefeated team in the league at 12-0 and they currently have all the perks that go with that. The VooDoo are the South champs again and will host a playoff game at minimum. They have a 2.5 game lead for home field advantage and can afford to be conservative with player health. Shreveport is 6-6, half a game out of a wildcard spot. Birmingham is hanging around at 5-7 while Georgia is 3-9, mathematically alive.

Atlantic: Washington (9-2-1) has a 2 game lead on Pittsburgh (7-4-1), with the Maulers the current #6 seed. Washington's remaining schedule is tougher than Pittsburgh's and if things break right, the Week 15 rematch could be quite important for the top of the division. Baltimore is in 3rd place at 4-8 while 2-10 Charlotte is eliminated.

East: New York currently leads the division but with 3 straight losses, they are trying to give it away. The Stars are 7-5, with a 2 game lead on Philadelphia. The Bell started out as the East leaders but their previous owner went MIA and didn't leave a blueprint of the offense for the new ownership. QB Joel Jasso has struggled the most, yet they are still in contention. New Jersey sucks and will not make the playoffs despite being mathematically alive. Hindsight says maybe I should have kept Kevin Via so I could go one and done if I made the playoffs, but we needed a break from each other. Boston just got their first win of the season but that's not enough to stave off elimination.

Forgot the wildcards until I hit submit. Thought about editing the above post, but I'll just do this instead.

Wildcard: Current wildcards are Orlando (8-4), Pittsburgh (7-4-1), and Tampa Bay (6-5-1). Knocking on the door hoping for a break are Shreveport (6-6), Philadelphia (5-7), Birmingham (5-7), New Jersey (4-8), Baltimore (4-8), Georgia (3-9), Florida (3-9)

I'm just goint go do a quick rundown, and do a more in depth look over the weekend, after tonight's games run.

American Conference

Clinched Division: Michigan

Clinched Playoff Spot: San Antonio

In the Hunt: San Jose, Honolulu, Denver, Portland, Oakland, Houston, Memphis, Oklahoma

Houston and Denver seem to be in good spots at 10-3. The Gold control their own destiny in the West while Houston is a likely wildcard.

San Jose finally lost, breaking their 8 game win streak and if they remain tied with Honolulu we'll have to see how tiebreakers shake out.

Portland is 9-4, current #6 seed while the non Pacific winner SJ/Hon, Memphis, Oakland and Oklahoma all hoping to catch breaks and qualify.

National Conference

Clinched Division: New Orleans, New York

Clinched Playoff Spot: Washington

In the Hunt: Jacksonville, Orlando, Pittsburgh, Shreveport, Tampa Bay, Birmingham, Philadelphia

New Orleans is on track for the #1 seed, one more win or Washington loss will clinch it.

New York wins the East while Washington clinches at least a playoff spot, and they have a 2 game lead on Pittsburgh with 3 to play.

Jacksonville and Orlando are battling it out in the Southeast with both teams likely to at least be a wildcard.

Pittsburgh is the current #6 seed while Shreveport is #7.

Tampa Bay, Birmingham, and Philadelphia need wins and help.

We are 14 weeks in with 2 to go and the playoff chase is tightening. I believe Oakland has a standings glitch as 2 wins will make them 9-6-1. They would still need 2 of the 4 current 9 win teams to lose out to claim a spot but I don't believe they're eliminated yet. For now, I'm not including the Invaders in the playoff discussion as it's still a longshot and there are too many scenarios to work through.

American Conference

Clinched Home Field Advantage: San Antonio

Clinched Division: Michigan

Clinched #5 seed: Houston

In the Hunt: San Jose, Honolulu, Denver, Portland, Memphis

Houston could still catch San Antonio in W/L record but the Gunslingers would still have the tiebreaker whether it's net points or conference record. San Antonio wins the Southwest and will host all the playoff games up to the World Bowl.

I haven't actually gone through the tiebreakers but I believe Houston has clinched the #5 seed. They could be caught if a 9-5 team goes 2-0 if that team(s) don't also win their division (San Jose, Honolulu, and Portland fall into that category). Denver could be in the wildcard mix too, but again, too many scenarios. Houston wraps up the season against my 4-10 Generals team so it's doubtful Houston loses out.

Michigan has won the Midwest.

San Jose and Honolulu are tied atop the Pacific with 9-5 records. They split their 2 games and have the same conference record. San Jose is 5-1 in division, Honolulu 4-1 with 1 to play. If a tie comes down to total points San Jose would get that. Honolulu has the schedule edge and the team that doesn't win the division is still in the thick of the wildcard race.

Denver has a 1 game lead on Portland plus the tiebreaker thanks to their sweep of the Storm this year. One more win by Denver or 1 more loss by Portland and the Gold win the West.

San Antonio has won the Southwest while Michigan wins the Midwest. Houston has clinched a wildcard spot. That leaves 5 teams fighting for 4 spots so one of San Jose, Honolulu, Denver, Portland, or Memphis won't play in January. Denver is 10-4 while the rest are 9-5.

San Jose: vs New Orleans (14-0), vs Oklahoma (7-7)
Honolulu: vs Birmingham (6-8), @ Southern California (4-10)
Denver: vs Michigan (9-5), @ Oakland (7-6-1)
Portland: vs Arizona (4-10), @ Washington (11-2-1)
Memphis: @ Philadelphia (6-8), vs San Antonio (13-1)
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In the National Conference, Birmingham and Philadelphia can both tie Shreveport but even if they all end up 8-8, Shreveport owns the tiebreaker over both. The Steamer and Stallions split their 2 games and would have equal division records if tied so Shreveport wins on better conference record. Shreveport beat Philadelphia head to head.


National Conference

Clinched Home Field Advantage: New Orleans

Clinched Division: Washington, New York

Clinched Playoff Spot: Jacksonville

In the Hunt: Orlando, Tampa Bay, Shreveport, Pittsburgh

Jacksonville has the upper hand in the Southeast race with their sweep of Orlando. One more win for the Bulls or one loss by the Renegades will do it. Even if they manage to lose the division, they will still get at least a wildcard spot.

The other 3 divisions have all been decided with New Orleans, Washington, and New York moving on to January. Jacksonville is in regardless so we'll focus on the 3 remaining spots, assuming Orlando is fighting for a wildcard. The Renegades are in pretty good shape record wise and schedule wise. They do play Tampa Bay Week 16, but that might only be important to the Bandits, depending on results.

Between Orlando (9-5), Tampa Bay (7-6-1), Shreveport (8-6), and Pittsburgh (8-5-1), just one will be eliminated. Tampa Bay is the one currently out.

Jacksonville: vs Detroit (5-9), @ Philadelphia (6-8)
Orlando: vs Cleveland (1-13), vs Tampa Bay (7-6-1)
Tampa Bay: vs Florida (3-11), @ Orlando (9-5)
Shreveport: @ Los Angeles (3-11), @ New Orleans (14-0)
Pittsburgh: @ Washington (11-2-1), vs Baltimore (5-9)

If you don't know your Week 15 result, stop reading.

I hate that the MFN tiebreakers aren't posted anywhere because it might matter. Tiebreakers could get real interesting if the results break right. I can do an easy breakdown and a difficult one. Let's get started.

American Conference

Clinched Home Field: San Antonio

Clinched Division: Denver, Michigan

Clinched Wildcard: Houston

In the Hunt: San Jose, Honolulu, Portland, Memphis

Easy breakdown: San Jose, Portland, and Memphis just need to win to get in. Honolulu needs a win and help.

Schedules

San Jose vs Oklahoma
Honolulu @ Southern California
Portland @ Washington
Memphis vs San Antonio

Difficult Breakdown: Looking at the schedule, there is a good chance we'll have some tiebreakers for the final spot or two. The first key is what San Jose does. If they win they win the division with Portland, Memphis, and Honolulu fighting for 2 spots. If San Jose loses and Honolulu wins, they'll be tied for the division lead and they split this season. They would have identical 5-1 division records in this scenario and common games is supposed to come before conference record, at least it does for the NFL...


To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.
Two Clubs

Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
Strength of victory in all games.

I know that strength of victory = net points in MFN, but where exactly does it fit in the MFN tiebreaker order? It matters, as San Jose has that while Honolulu would have conference record if they end up tied (they are tied now at 7-4 but if they both finish 10-6, San Jose will be 7-5 in conference while Honolulu would be 8-4).

Does net points replace common games? That's a good suggestion for the MFN committee, pin JDB down on the exact tiebreakers.

So, not knowing how to break a possible tie between San Jose and Honolulu, I need to run tiebreakers for both teams against Portland and Memphis, 2 way and 3 way. Why? Because in any 3 or 4 way tie, you must break division ties first.

The following tiebreak scenarios assume San Jose, Portland, and Memphis lose while Honolulu wins If San Jose wins, their tiebreaker might be with Denver for seeding. If Portland and Memphis both win, seeding as well.

San Jose/Portland...inconclusive if both 10-6, no head to head, would have same conference record and Portland is +146, San Jose +136 in points

San Jose/Memphis...Memphis based on a Week 1 win over San Jose

San Jose/Portland/Memphis...In this scenario, Memphis is eliminated based on conference record while SJ/Port tie determines 6/7 seeds

Portland/Memphis...no head to head but Portland would have a better conference record

Honolulu/Portland...Portland beat Honolulu head to head Week 3

Honolulu/Memphis...Honolulu beat Memphis Week 13

Honolulu/Portland/Memphis...Honolulu and Portland advance with Memphis losing out based on conference record
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I hope this comes across in a sensible manner, I was typing while I was interpreting the rules.

National Conference

Clinched Home Field: New Orleans

Clinched Division: Washington, Jacksonville, New York

Clinched Wildcard: Orlando, Pittsburgh

In the Hunt: Shreveport, Tampa Bay

This conference is pretty simple, at least as far as who gets in the playoffs. Shreveport needs to win and they get in, or have Tampa Bay lose. Tampa Bay will get in with a win and a Shreveport loss.

Pittsburgh can finish no worse than the #7 seed as they beat Tampa Bay head to head in the case of any tiebreakers.

Schedules

Shreveport @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay @ Orlando