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Hitting the homestretch of the season and things are getting wild concerning the playoffs. In the National Conference we have 6 teams fighting for 5 spots. The American Conference has 9 teams fighting for 4 spots. I do question whether or not Cleveland has actually clinched the Midwest as they could end up tied with Detroit and splitting with them.
American Conference
Division Winners: Portland, Cleveland
In The Hunt: San Jose, Honolulu, Los Angeles, Memphis, Oklahoma, Houston
San Jose (10-3) has a 2 game lead on (8-5) Honolulu and Los Angeles in the Pacific.
Portland (12-1) won the West awhile ago and has a 2 game lead for home field and the BYE.
Memphis and Oklahoma (10-3) are tied atop the Midwest and play each other Week 16. Houston (8-5) is still alive for a playoff spot and even the division but with 2 other teams also 8-5 it's possible the Gamblers miss the playoffs.
Cleveland (8-5) has been declared the Midwest winner in press clippings but I haven't worked out the tiebreakers. There is a chance for Detroit to tie Cleveland at 8-8 with a deep dive into those tiebreakers, but the Wheels need to win out while the Thunderbolts lose out.
The non division winner between Memphis and Oklahoma will likely get the top wildcard with the other 2 spots coming from a group of Honolulu, Los Angeles, or Houston. The Gamblers have the toughest remaining schedule of the 3 while Los Angeles has the easiest based on W-L records. MFN's playoff picture says Los Angeles is currently the odd team out. ____________________________________________________________________________
In The Hunt: Orlando, Tampa Bay, Shreveport, Georgia, Baltimore, Washington, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, New Jersey
Orlando (9-4) has a 2.5 game lead on Tampa Bay (6-6-1) with 3 to play.
New Orleans (12-1) has a 2 game lead on Birmingham (10-3) with 3 to play.
The Atlantic is a 4 team race with Baltimore (8-5) holding a slim 1 game lead over Washington and Charlotte (7-6) with Pittsburgh (6-7) 2 games back.
Philadelphia (12-1) has won the East and is fighting with New Orleans for home field advantage and the BYE.
Assuming New Orleans wins the South, Birmingham is in line for the top wildcard but both teams will be playing January football. New Jersey (9-4) is in good shape for a wildcard spot while a host of teams are fighting for the 7 seed.
So this is the first I've seen a division winner retracted as Cleveland lost their designation. My post will reflect MFN's new reality. Also, I beg to differ that Portland has clinched home field advantage. San Jose beat Portland head to head so if Portland loses it's last 2 to New Orleans and Birmingham while San Jose wins their last 2, I believe the SaberCats should have home field. New Orleans and Birmingham both have at least 11 wins so Portland losing their last 2 is entirely possible.
American Conference
Division Winners: Portland, San Jose
Clinched Playoff Spot: Memphis
In the Hunt: Los Angeles, Honolulu, Oklahoma, Houston, Cleveland, Detroit
Portland (13-1) has been declared #1 seed by MFN but I think they still need 1 more win or 1 more San Jose (11-3) loss first. The SaberCats could still be caught for the division by Los Angeles (9-5) but I believe San Jose wins the tiebreaker based on better conference record.
Memphis (11-3) will at least be a wildcard and they currently lead the Midwest. Oklahoma (10-4) is right behind them and they play each other Week 16.
Cleveland (8-6) has a 2 game lead on Detroit (6-8) and they play each other Week 15. A Cleveland win gives them the Midwest but a Detroit win makes for an interesting Week 16. If both teams finish 8-8, the tiebreakers will go deep as they will have split, and have identical division and conference records.
The wildcard race is essentially 4 teams for 3 spots. I mentioned Los Angeles and Oklahoma already and the Outlaws are currently the top wildcard. Los Angeles and Houston (9-5) would be the other 2 wildcards with Honolulu (8-6) on the outside looking in.
Remaining Schedule
San Jose @ Southern California (5-9), vs Detroit (6-8) Los Angeles vs Denver (2-12), vs Oakland (3-11) Honolulu @ Chicago (5-8-1), vs Florida (0-13-1) Portland vs Birmingham (11-3), @ New Orleans (13-1) Memphis @ Michigan (5-9), vs Oklahoma (10-4) Oklahoma vs Charlotte (7-7), @ Memphis (11-3) Houston vs Washington (7-7), vs Chicago (5-8-1) Cleveland vs Detroit (6-8), @ New York (4-9-1) Detroit @ Cleveland (8-6), @ San Jose (11-3)
I don't believe there are any standings glitches in the National Conference as Washington could still tie Baltimore for the Atlantic and win on better division record while New Jersey should win a tiebreaker against at least 1 team should there be 3 or 4 teams that finish 9-7.
National Conference
Division Winners: Orlando, New Orleans, Philadelphia
Clinched Wildcard Spot: Birmingham, New Jersey
In the Hunt: Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Tampa Bay, Shreveport, Georgia
Philadelphia (13-1) has won the East and they also beat New Orleans (13-1) head to head and have the inside track on home field and the BYE. New Orleans is the winner of the South regardless and will be at least the #2 seed. Orlando (10-4) has won the Southeast and will be the #3 or 4 seed.
Baltimore (9-5) needs 1 more win or 1 more Washington (7-7) loss to claim the Atlantic. Pittsburgh (7-7) and Charlotte (7-7) could also tie Baltimore but I believe they would lose tiebreakers, so they are fighting for the last wildcard spot.
Birmingham (11-3) is locked into the #5 seed as they can't catch New Orleans for the division and they beat New Jersey (9-5) so they have the tiebreaker edge. The Generals will most likely be the #6 seed and 1 more win locks that in.
The last wildcard spot will come from a group of teams: Washington, Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Tampa Bay (6-7-1), Shreveport (6-8), and Georgia (6-8).
Remaining Schedule
Orlando @ Tampa Bay (6-7-1), @ Southern California (5-9) Tampa Bay vs Orlando (10-4), vs Jacksonville (4-10) New Orleans @ Shreveport (6-8), vs Portland (13-1) Birmingham @ Portland (13-1), vs Shreveport (6-8) Shreveport vs New Orleans (13-1), @ Birmingham (11-3) Georgia vs New York (4-9-1), @ Baltimore (9-5) Baltimore vs San Antonio (2-12), vs Georgia (6-8) Washington @ Houston (9-5), vs Boston (1-13) Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia (13-1), @ San Antonio (2-12) Charlotte @ Oklahoma (10-4), @ Philadelphia (13-1) Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh (7-7), vs Charlotte (7-7) New Jersey @ Boston (1-13), @ Michigan (5-9)
Also, I beg to differ that Portland has clinched home field advantage. San Jose beat Portland head to head so if Portland loses it's last 2 to New Orleans and Birmingham while San Jose wins their last 2, I believe the SaberCats should have home field. New Orleans and Birmingham both have at least 11 wins so Portland losing their last 2 is entirely possible.
100% agree with this assessment. I was confused when I saw we had the designation of having clinched the #1 seed. The SaberCats should win the tiebreaker against us if we lose these last two, which is entirely possible.
Re: Playoff Races
by
raidergreg69
@
4/16/2023 2:19 pm
Week 16 is here and MFN keeps proving it has a standings glitch as for the second week in a row they contradict themselves. First it was Cleveland being given the Midwest early, then taking it away last week. Now MFN has retracted that Portland had the #1 seed based on Week 15 results.
This week the glitch falls on Honolulu, as they are not really eliminated. Honolulu swept Los Angeles so if they both end up 10-6, Honolulu moves into 2nd place in the Pacific with Los Angeles going to 3rd. Honolulu would also have a better conference record than the Houston Gamblers should they lose to Chicago.
American Conference
Division Winners: Portland, San Jose, Cleveland
In the Playoffs, seed undetermined: Memphis, Oklahoma
In the Hunt: Los Angeles, Honolulu, Houston _____________________________________________________________________________
If Portland beats New Orleans they are the #1 seed
If San Jose beats Detroit and Portland loses, they are the #1 seed, otherwise they'll be either #2 or #3
The winner of Memphis/Oklahoma will win the Southwest and be #2 or #3 while the loser will be a wildcard, most likely #5 seed
Cleveland is locked in as the #4 seed
Los Angeles and Houston need to win and they're in as wildcards
Honolulu needs a win and either an LA or Houston loss
In the National Conference, the glitch I see is how can Tampa Bay be eliminated when they have the same win % as the 7-8 teams? 6-7-2 is the same as 7-8 if you count ties as half a win and half a loss. The Bandits poor conference record likely would not allow them to win a tiebreaker anyway, but I hate the inaccuracy of the standings.
National Conference
Division Winners: Philadelphia, New Orleans, Orlando, Baltimore
Wildcards: Birmingham, New Jersey
In the Hunt: Tampa Bay, Georgia, Washington, Pittsburgh, Charlotte
If Philadelphia wins they are the #1 seed based on beating New Orleans head to head
If New Orleans wins and Philadelphia loses, they are the #1 seed, otherwise they will be #2
Orlando and Baltimore will be the #3 and #4 seeds, pending Week 16 outcomes
Birmingham and New Jersey are the #5 and #6 seeds respectively
The fight for the #7 seed could end up being wild, with 5 teams having basically the same record fighting for one spot. Washington is the current #7 seed but do we really trust MFN standings at this point?
No way am I going through every permutation of what could happen if those 5 teams win or lose, basically those teams need to win and hope the right teams lose so they win the tiebreaker.
