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1994 Playoff Scenarios
League News/General Discussion
raidergreg69
1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/02/2021 1:51 pm
I'll start with the conference that's all set but seeding.

National Conference Playoff Hunt

Clinched Division: Florida (10-3) Shreveport (7-6)

Clinched Playoff Spot: Baltimore (13-0) Washington (12-1) New Jersey (11-2) Philadelphia (10-3)

While it's still possible for Georgia and/or Birmingham to tie Shreveport, the Steamer swept both teams and wins any tiebreaker.

The Atlantic and East divisions will likely come down to Week 16 games when Washington plays at Baltimore and Philadelphia plays at New Jersey.

Florida is at New Jersey this week in a game that could have BYE week implications.
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/02/2021 2:16 pm
American Conference Playoff Hunt

Clinched Division: None

Clinched Playoff Spot: None

In the Hunt: San Jose (7-6) Honolulu (6-7) Denver (10-3) Portland (10-3) Houston (11-2) Memphis (10-3) Michigan (10-3) Detroit (10-3) Cleveland (10-3)

There is no way I can possibly break down exact scenarios for every team with 3 games left and everyone so bunched up. We'll just look at each team and their remaining schedule.

Pacific

One team is coming out of this division. San Jose has the upper hand for now, but Honolulu has a far easier schedule and a head to head opportunity Week 15.

San Jose (7-6) @ Washington (12-1), @ Honolulu (6-7), @ Michigan (10-3)
Honolulu (6-7) vs Southern California (2-11), vs San Jose (7-6), @ Charlotte (3-10)

West

Denver and Portland are currently tied and split their H2H meetings.

Denver (10-3) @ Oakland (4-9), @ Cleveland (10-3), vs Houston (11-2)
Portland (10-3) @ Arizona (0-13), vs Houston (11-2), @ San Antonio (7-6)

Southwest

Houston has a 1 game lead on Memphis and they split the season series

Houston (11-2) @ Chicago (6-7), @ Portland (10-3), @ Denver (10-3)
Memphis (10-3) vs Tampa Bay (5-8), @ Oklahoma (1-12), @ Florida (10-3)

Midwest

After 13 weeks we still have a 3 way tie at the top. Michigan split with Detroit and beat Cleveland with the rematch looming. Detroit split with both Michigan and Cleveland, which means Cleveland split with Detroit and lost to Michigan with the rematch looming.

Michigan (10-3) vs Cleveland (10-3), @ Chicago (6-7), vs San Jose (7-6)
Detroit (10-3) vs New Orleans (3-10), @ Arizona (0-13), @ Chicago (6-7)
Cleveland (10-3) @ Michigan (10-3), vs Denver (10-3), @ New Orleans (3-10)
Hellbringer
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by Hellbringer @ 6/02/2021 5:16 pm
Detroit has a soft schedule, Cleveland has the hardest in our division. Chicago could force an upset and bounce one of us out. Never underestimate Chicago
Liked by raidergreg69
jabillups85
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by jabillups85 @ 6/02/2021 7:41 pm
Hellbringer wrote:
Detroit has a soft schedule, Cleveland has the hardest in our division. Chicago could force an upset and bounce one of us out. Never underestimate Chicago

I do not like my odds after seeing the remaining games!
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/04/2021 3:14 pm
Nothing really changed in the National Conference other than Florida beat New Jersey to gain the upper hand on the #2 seed/BYE.

In the American Conference, not much changed either. Nobody has claimed a playoff spot yet, not one single team.

San Jose and Honolulu are still tied atop the Pacific and the tie will be broken Sunday night unless their game ends in a tie.

Denver and Portland are still tied atop the West at 11-3.

Houston is 12-2, 2 games ahead of Memphis (10-4) in the Southwest.

Michigan and Detroit are tied atop the Midwest at 11-3 while Cleveland is 1 game back at 10-4.

Wildcard race is currently led by whichever 11-3 teams don't win the division between Denver, Portland, Michigan, and Detroit. Memphis and Cleveland are 1 game behind and would currently miss the playoffs if they started now.

Once again, there are too many variables/too little time to go through every team's scenarios, but heading into Week 16 the paths should be clearer.
Last edited 6/04/2021 7:15 pm
Liked by Cjfred68, Hellbringer
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/07/2021 3:03 am
I am currently figuring scenarios for the Week 16 games. According to NFL.com, these are the tiebreakers https://www.nfl.com/standings/tie-breaking-procedures.

Stupid broken MFN playoff generator and my tiredness had me mess up.
Last edited 6/07/2021 7:59 am
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/07/2021 3:30 am
If you're up late and read what I just deleted, I apologize. I missed something obvious, so I deleted the post and will start over. One important note...

Detroit HAS NOT clinched the division
Last edited 6/07/2021 7:57 am
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/07/2021 4:09 am
I need to sleep for a few hours, but what messed me up was failing to look at division records for Detroit and Michigan. If Detroit loses and Michigan wins, the Panthers win the division based on division record, since they split in the regular season.

Division Tiebreakers

Denver over Portland based on better conference record

Memphis over Houston based on better common opponents record

Michigan over Detroit based on better division record

Wildcard tiebreakers will take awhile and I'll do them after I wake up.
Liked by PrivateSnowflake
Hellbringer
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by Hellbringer @ 6/07/2021 4:58 am
Told ya'all Chicago could be the upsetter
Liked by jabillups85
raidergreg69
Re: 1994 Playoff Scenarios
by raidergreg69 @ 6/07/2021 11:43 am
I am going to make a new, clean playoff post but I just want to say, what a mess this could be still. For some of the possible tiebreak scenarios, I had to go deep, past common opponents. That's where it gets murky, talking about strength of victory. In the World League, JDB once told me I won a tiebreaker I thought I lost due to better net points, so I'm going with that instead of strength of victory, which I think is the combined win % of their opponents.
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