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According to MFN, we have 3 teams in the playoffs and 9 eliminated with 4 weeks to play. Let's take a look at the playoff picture as it is now...
If the playoffs started today:
#1 seed Memphis #2 seed Portland
#3 seed San Jose #4 seed Chicago #5 seed Houston #6 seed Honolulu
MFN says only Memphis has clinched a spot so far, but if Portland beats Oakland tonight, the Storm will win the West.
The Pacific Division will be decided on the field, literally, the last 4 weeks as San Jose (9-3) and Honolulu (8-4) play each other twice. Honolulu is the current #6 seed based on Conference Record as they have not played Oakland head to head.
As stated above, Portland wins the West with a win tonight, but Oakland will still be in the wildcard hunt regardless. Denver needs to keep winning as well to stay in the hunt as they are the current #8 seed.
In the Southwest, Memphis is the league's last unbeaten team at 12-0, yet they have a real chance to end up a #5 seed. The last 4 games for Memphis are against Orlando (7-5), San Antonio (1-11), Portland (11-1), and Houston (11-1). Houston is just 1 game behind, and if both keep winning, the Gamblers will be HUGE Portland fans in Week 15, as a Storm win sets up a Week 16 game in Memphis where the winner gets a BYE and the loser plays next week.
I would be absolutely shocked if one of Memphis or Houston fails to qualify.
In the Midwest, it's a division up for grabs as just 1.5 games separates 1st from last. It's very unlikely a wildcard comes from this division, and they all play each other down the stretch. Chicago has the schedule disadvantage, their remaining opponent's combined record is 26-22, while Detroit's is 19-28-1, and for Michigan and Cleveland, it's 15-32-1.
For the National Conference, if the playoffs started now...
#1 seed Baltimore #2 seed New Orleans
#3 seed New Jersey #4 seed Orlando #5 seed Washington #6 seed Shreveport
According to MFN, Baltimore has clinched a playoff spot and New Jersey has clinched the East. It's possible both New Jersey and Boston could end up tied at 9-7 if the Generals finish 0-4 while Boston goes 0-4. It's too early to figure tiebreak scenarios so I'm not going to do it.
Since I said all that, we'll stick with the East and say Boston, New York and Philadelphia are all still in play for a wildcard spot. The current #6 seed is 7-5, making Boston 2 games out, New York and Philadelphia 3.
Baltimore is 11-1, 2 games ahead of Washington in the Atlantic. The Stars also have a sweep in their pocket in case Washington ties them for the division. Baltimore will at least be a wildcard. Speaking of the wildcard, if Baltimore wins the division as expected, the Federals should get one, although their remaining schedule is no cake walk. Charlotte is 6-6, 1 game out of the wildcard, though their remaining schedule is also tough.
In the South, New Orleans currently has a 2 game lead on Shreveport, but the Steamer just beat the VooDoo and they have to play again. If New Orleans loses the division, they should still get a wildcard spot. Shreveport is the current #6 seed over Tampa Bay based on conference record.
It seems Shreveport is fighting with Orlando and Tampa Bay for 2 playoff spots. Based on current records, if we assume New Jersey, Baltimore, Washington and New Orleans make it, that leaves 2 spots, one for the last wildcard and one for the winner of the Southeast. Orlando and Tampa Bay are both 7-5 and tied for the Southeast lead, but the Renegades won the team's first meeting.
Clinched Division and a BYE: Portland Clinched Playoff Spot: Memphis, Houston In the Hunt: San Jose, Honolulu, Denver, Oakland, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, Michigan
Memphis or Houston will win the Southwest and get a first round BYE, while the other will likely be the #5 seed
San Jose and Honolulu are fighting for the Pacific crown
The loser of the Pacific chase will be in the wildcard hunt with Denver and Oakland, and maybe even the second place team in the Midwest
Speaking of the Midwest, all 4 teams are separated by just 1 game and the next 2 weeks they all play each other.
Clinched Division: New Jersey Clinched Playoff Spot: Baltimore and Washington In the Hunt: Tampa Bay, Orlando, New Orleans, Shreveport, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Boston
New Orleans is almost in, as they have a 3 game lead with 3 to play. One VooDoo win or one Steamer loss and the South belongs to New Orleans.
Baltimore should end up winning the Atlantic, with a sweep in their pocket, but Washington is still alive for the division. Regardless, the Federals will at least be a wildcard team.
Tampa Bay has a 1 game lead on Orlando for the Southeast. Whichever team finishes 2nd should be in the wildcard hunt
Shreveport might now be a longshot to win the South, but they are listed as the current #6 seed, and they need to hold off the 2nd place team in the Southeast, as well as Charlotte, Philadelphia and Boston.
Charlotte, Philadelphia, and Boston are mathematically alive for the playoffs but it will be tough to get there. Charlotte is 6-7 but their remaining schedule is pretty tough. Philadelphia and Boston are 5-8, 2 games behind with 3 to go, with multiple teams to climb over.
Two games to go and half of the division races are undecided. Let's look at the American Conference first.
Clinched Division and a BYE: Portland Clinched Playoff Spot: Memphis, Houston In the Hunt: Honolulu, San Jose, Oakland, Denver*, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Michigan*
* MFN says eliminated, I'm not so sure
MFN says Denver and Michigan are eliminated, but Denver can finish 10-5-1, which could result in a #6 seed if the right teams lose.
Michigan can finish 8-8, which could possibly tie for the division lead and go to tiebreakers, which I haven't tried to figure out.
Honolulu travels to San Jose and the winner should end up winning the Pacific. The loser will still have the upper hand on Oakland due to conference record for the #6 seed.
Portland travels to Memphis in a fight for the #1 seed and home field advantage. Portland will be no worse than a #2 seed with a loss, but Memphis could end up #5 if they lose to Houston Week 16.
Detroit ends up in sole possession of the Midwest after round robin week 1. All 4 Midwest teams play each other again, so following Week 15, we'll have a clearer idea, maybe.
In the National Conference, 3 of 4 divisions are decided, and MFN says the 6-8 teams are eliminated, although they could be wrong. Even if they are wrong, a lot of things would have to happen, and go deep into tiebreakers to figure it out, so for the sake of discussion, we'll assume they are right.
Clinched #1 seed: Baltimore Clinched Division: New Orleans, New Jersey Clinched #5 seed: Washington In the Hunt: Orlando, Tampa Bay, Shreveport
New Orleans has a 1 game lead and a victory over New Jersey so if that holds, the VooDoo are #2 seed with a BYE and the Generals will be the #3.
Tampa Bay travels to Orlando Week 15 where the winner will have sole possession of the Southeast. The loser could end up tied for the #6 seed going into Week 16 with Shreveport, and all 3 teams have tough games.
Tampa Bay: @ Orlando, @ Baltimore Orlando: vs Tampa Bay, @ Charlotte Shreveport: vs (NY) Stars, @ New Orleans
While MFN does say Charlotte, Philadelphia and Boston are eliminated, it's a real possibility that 8-8 will be the record of the #6 seed, so don't give up yet.
Clinched Division and a BYE: Portland Clinched Playoff Spot: San Jose, Memphis, Houston In the Hunt: Honolulu, Denver, Chicago, Detroit
If Portland wins, they get home field advantage based on beating Memphis last night, or better conference record than Houston.
Winner of Memphis/Houston is the #2 seed, loser #5 seed.
San Jose will be no worse than a wildcard, and only need to win to claim the Pacific. If the SaberCats lose and Honolulu wins, the Hawaiians claim the Pacific with a better division record.
Denver, while shown as eliminated by MFN, can still be the #6 seed with a win and a Honolulu loss.
Detroit travels to Chicago Week 16 for an actual pre-playoff game. The winner is the #4 seed, loser's season is over.
The National Conference has a lot less drama as only the #6 seed is undecided.
#1 seed: Baltimore #2 seed: New Orleans #3 seed: New Jersey #4 seed: Orlando #5 seed: Washington
The #6 seed will either be Tampa Bay or Shreveport. Both teams have Week 16 games against teams that have already qualified for the playoffs, Tampa @ Baltimore and Shreveport @ New Orleans.
Shreveport has the upper hand in tiebreakers with a better conference record than Tampa Bay since they didn't play each other this season.
If both teams win or both teams lose: Shreveport is #6 If Tampa Bay wins and Shreveport loses: Tampa Bay is #6
