Last Week 3-1-1

Overall 30-27-3

Doing these early since I'm using one of tomorrow's games. Still alive in Survivor, taking Carolina over Washington this week.

Dallas -6.5
Carolina -10
Indianapolis -2.5
Cincinnati +3.5
Arizona +4

Last Week 1-4

Overall 31-31-3

I didn't do very well picking games last week and got bounced from survivor. Three of the 5 remaining fell with the Panthers so at least I wasn't alone.

I haven't looked at this weekend's games but I want to pick tonight's game.

Chicago +3.5

I felt last week Dallas was playing to save Garrett's job and they came out flat against Buffalo after an impressive opening drive. Chicago sucks too but they're at home. My dude Khalil Mack has been quiet this season and I believe that changes tonight. He's due for one of his 3 sack games where he wreaks havoc all night.

1-0 so far this week, Da Bears didn't need any stinkin points.

Buffalo +6.5 Baltimore is all the rage lately but Buffalo is tough. I'll take that many points with any team 9-3.
Arizona +1.5 I don't think Pittsburgh's smoke and mirrors will work in the desert.
Oakland +3 I don't like betting on Oakland but they're a different team at home and they can't keep playing this crappy on offense. Flaming Thumbtacks been lucky of late and they might be looking past Oakland with the Texans, Saints, and Texans again next 3 weeks.
NY Giants +9.5 Eli sucks and I don't think he should be in the HOF but he's good enough to cover that huge spread. And the Eagles are just inconsistent enough to let Eli cover.

This is the Tennessee Titans logo. Is that or is that not a flaming thumbtack?

Well, once again I'm glad no real money was wagered on these picks. I was right in my analysis of Baltimore/Buffalo and it was a good value pick, just fell a half point short.

I guess Pittsburgh's smoke and mirrors do work in the desert.

Captain Checkdown and the Chuckies didn't look too good today. Flaming Thumbtacks took it to them.

Last Week 2-3

Overall 33-34-3

Crappy last 2 weeks, I'll try to act like I know a little about football this week.

I'm looking at the bet percentages and most games are usually close, no more than 65/35 split with one or 2 outlier games. Vegas has some exposure this week.

As of 6:00 am, the following wagers had 70% or more:

Chicago 74%
New England 80%
Seattle 83%
Buffalo 75%
Oakland 77%
Cleveland 90%
LA Rams 85%

If Vegas takes a hit in the early games, expect a ton of flags on Cleveland as they try and keep the Cardinals within the number. Rams too, though Raiders always get flagged a ton.

My Picks

Detroit +5.5 This is more a pick against Jameis Winston and his fractured thumb. I know what he did last week but he always keeps the other team in games with his turnovers.

Cincinnati +10.5 This pick is a pick against the public combined with getting double digits at home. I think New England wins by a TD, probably a pick six. Dalton is good at that.

Pittsburgh -1 Listing these in the Vegas order, and this game was originally an afternoon game before being flexed to SNF. This is gonna be an ugly game to watch, Pittsburgh might win 5-3 but they'll win.

Arizona +3 I'm back on the Cardinals despite their horrendous play of late. This is purely an anti public play, plus I have zero faith Cleveland can do much right. They remind me of that Peanuts character, Pig-Pen, always have a cloud of dust surrounding them.

Dallas +1 It's easy to kick Dallas when they're down, and I do enjoy doing that but this line is wrong. I've been hearing the Vegas guys discussing the line move all week, so I'm going with a value pick with it also being anti public.

Do I get a bonus for correctly predicting a Dalton pick six? It literally just happened.

2-2 so far today. Looks like some games had a lot of late action as the Chi/GB game was almost a 50/50 split at kickoff after being 74% Bears at 6am.

About to go to bed and almost forgot to post my picks.

Denver -7
Oakland +7.5
Washington Pick 'em
NY Jets +3.5
Miami Pick 'em

Week 15 2-3

Week 16 4-1

Overall 39-38-3

I hate Week 17. It's hard to decide which team's scrubs are gonna play well.

Tennessee -6 Titans just need to win to get in and Houston can't get a BYE and they are banged up.
Cincinnati +3 Bengals almost screwed themselves out of Burrow with that miraculous comeback that fell short in OT. They continue to play hard and end Freddie Kichen's head coaching career with a loss.
NY Giants +3.5 Do the Eagles have 45 healthy players? At least one of these Week 17 games won't go according to plan and I feel this is one of the most likely to be an upset.
NY Jets +1 Buffalo has nothing to play for, locked into the #5 seed and the Jets are playing better than their record of late.
Miami +16.5 This is probably a sucker bet, as this game could go exactly how I think it will for New England's offense and still not cover. I think Brady and company struggle again as I think they need to score 31 to cover and they won't do that without a defensive/special teams score or two.