So I've taken over a bottom level team not only in cap trouble but the roster is quite pedestrian and needs help at many positions.
https://moguls.myfootballnow.com/team/24

I'm still fairly new so bear with me. Last season was the 1st draft I took part in and while I was trying to just look at best player avail I was also looking at the player volatility hoping to avoid a bust. Again I'm new so don't judge my picks, hehe I picked 3rd with a player vol of 14

After making initial team cuts, I've realized this is a long term project and not a one/two season draft a stud WR to play at WR/RB and then win the Division/Conference. I can see that I need to not only draft smart and pay attention to waiver wire but that it is crucial that the top draft picks do not bust. Along with the roster it looks to take a few seasons of tough choices to also address the Cap trouble so that after a few seasons I would like to think we can turn the team around and start to be competitive. It will take time but I am prepared for that.

Here is where I am really going. How low in player volatility do you need to go to ensure your player/s wont bust. I would not imagine being fun to have a 1st round pick bust and extend the teams misfortunes.
So my question is: with the initial boom/bust/neutral player change in the first season, is it really just a case of a "predefined target" that the player wants to move to and the volatility is the resistance or acceleration to get there? When I look back at the previous draft 1st round I see mixed results

So with my low volatility player (14) and a -1 future max, I hope that this may be all he will drop
but I guess I wont know for a few seasons

last draft
- 1.1 Vol 68 From Start +8/0
- 1.2 Vol 92 “ “ +2/-12 **
- 1.3 Vol 14 “ “ +46/-1 *
- 1.4 Vol 46 “ “ +20/0
- 1.5 Vol 50 “ “ +14/+2
- 1.6 Vol 80 “ “ +8/-11 **
- 1.7 Vol 94 “ “ +13/+5
- 1.8 Vol 20 “ “ +16/-3 *
- 1.9 Vol 10 “ “ +8/+1
- 1.10 Vol 20 “ “ +17/+1
- 1.11 Vol 30 “ “ +15/-4 *
- 1.12 Vol 4 “ “ +16/+1
- 1.13 Vol 28 “ “ +17/+3
- 1.14 Vol 38 “ “ +4/-1 *
- 1.15 Vol 70 “ “ +5/-4 *
- 1.16 Vol 6 “ “ +13/+1
- 1.17 Vol 60 “ “ +10/-6 **
- 1.18 Vol 14 “ “ +11/-2 *
- 1.19 Vol 54 “ “ +30/+5
- 1.20 Vol 98 “ “ +16/+5
- 1.21 Vol 2 “ “ +14/0
- 1.22 Vol 10 “ “ +13/0
- 1.23 Vol 10 “ “ +9/+1
- 1.25 Vol 54 “ “ +16/-13 **
- 1.26 Vol 94 “ “ +6/-8 **
- 1.27 Vol 68 “ “ +9/-4 *
- 1.28 Vol 68 “ “ +11/-8 **
- 1.29 Vol 32 “ “ +15/-4 *
- 1.30 Vol 58 “ “ +11/-5. **
- 1.31 Vol 68 “ “ +10/-4 *
- 1.32 Vol 26 “ “ +12/+4
1st round volatility grouping
<= 10
+1, 0, +1
10’s
-1, +1, -2, 0, +1,
20’s
-3, +1, +3, +4
30’s
-4, -1, -4
40’s
0,
50’s
+2, +5, -13, -5
60’s
0, -6, -4, -8 , -4
70’s
-4,
80’s
-11,
90’s
-12, +5, +5, -8,

OK so now I look to upcoming draft and while I am not certain It looks like I will be drafting 3rd or 4th. The 2028 class has a stud WR with vol at 8 but I am not in a position to try to move up.
Last season the players with vol <30 turned out pretty good with only 3/12 dropping by a small margin. Hopefully that may be all they will drop. Past 50's it looks pretty underwhelming that your pick will stay at his current level of potential. Jeez even the 30's wasn't good.

In the upcoming draft the top players with my weights (typical adjusted) show that the top draftees are 42,84,8,66,52,38,58,4,70,82,36,46,22,44,84,94,
I have to drop to the 25th ranked player to get back to a low vol of 10
Now granted the teams above ours may not be so conservative but at the 3rd/4th pick the difference of player future max drops from the 90's down to 80's so it may take even longer to rebuild the team without taking some risk. So do I need to get down below 10 volatility to be a steady rebuild or just by the nature of gambling and RNG am I compelled to take the risk and draft a higher potential player to cornerstone the franchise?

Everything you do, you do a risk assessment. If you play it safe with your picks, you'll get solid, but less spectacular players. When rebuilding, taking more high vol chances early can be worth it. When your team is more ready to go, the low vol pick that solves a problem and won't bust big is your best friend.

Good luck. :-)

yes I agree but I can see where it can be frustrating, even when you think you are selecting a less risky player and dont draft the higher sexier talent, however I guess the takeaway is that the percentages are still in your favor with the lower vol even if it doesn't work out each time

- 1.7 Vol 94 “ “ +13/+5
- 1.8 Vol 20 “ “ +16/-3 *

The thing is; you can't impact who booms or busts, volatility is just limiting how much they can boom or bust.

Take the safety I took in this years draft in Any Given Sunday. With 0 volatility, it's unlikely that he'll change much at all. I think max is +/- 1. But, with my weight at least, he's already a 90 future, so I'm fine with him not booming. So long as he's not busting, he's a star for 10 seasons.

It does **** to have a first round bust, but if it's a skill player, speed still plays. Say you take a WR with 75 volatility who has 92 speed, 85 acceleration and 80 strength. After training camp, his rating plummets 11 points, pass catching ends up at 54, route running 66. Dude still has all the physical attributes and if you cut him, half the league would put in waiver claims.

Yes I can totally see that but what I struggle with is when you do have a top pick with only 2 in the top 10 players in the draft with low volatility and having to drop a long ways in talent to get to another lower volatility player. I am expecting both low vol players to be gone although I would be happy to be wrong. Maybe I just notice it more now, looking for the lower volatility rather than just blindly swinging for the fence on the next best player based on future potential. Seeing how limited the lower volatility players are. And I do see even the veteran players draft the high vol players looking for studs



That's a very good point, is it just the football skills that will increase/decrease?

At first yes, so long as you don't change their position. After several seasons, the physical skills decrease as players age. If you change a players position, say move a LB to DE or vice versa, the players physical weight will change, affecting speed. A player you make heavier will lose speed, lighter is faster.

Ok thks, I guess I missed that detail. Good to know that the physical attributes will stay which does mitigate somewhat if the player drops

The "intangibles" won't change. For a QB, that's SPD, ACC, str, int, discipline, release, arm. Technical skills is where booming and busting happens.

Is the drop only in the blue future potential or does the current red drop as well?