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Fumble Proneness

By adamsneeka
10/19/2015 7:36 pm
I have an RB who is currently 96/98 avoid fumble but has fumbled 4 times in the last game and 11 times in 8 games played this season include three multiple fumble games (2,2,4) what other stats would affect his chance of fumbling?
actually still won the 4 fumble game including two fumbles from others for a total of 6 in one game but it kept my opposition in the game until the end.
I have a run orientated head coach and scheme but this seems high to me

Re: Fumble Proneness

By WarEagle
10/19/2015 7:41 pm
There does seem to be an unusually high number of fumbles in the latest game engine.

Re: Fumble Proneness

By ibblacklavender02
10/19/2015 7:53 pm
adamsneeka wrote:
I have an RB who is currently 96/98 avoid fumble but has fumbled 4 times in the last game and 11 times in 8 games played this season include three multiple fumble games (2,2,4) what other stats would affect his chance of fumbling?
actually still won the 4 fumble game including two fumbles from others for a total of 6 in one game but it kept my opposition in the game until the end.
I have a run orientated head coach and scheme but this seems high to me


Yeah I had that happen in one of my leagues while I have a running back in one league with a 6/16 in avoid fumble plus he is my kick and punt returner...Yet this guy hasn't fumbled as much as my star RB in my other league! I actually only think he fumbled once and that was on punt return so I'm unsure if that counts the same...
Last edited at 10/19/2015 7:54 pm

Re: Fumble Proneness

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/20/2015 8:11 am
There are a number of factors in determining the probability of a fumble:

* The ballcarrier's avoid fumble attribute
* The defender's strip ball attribute
* The angle of the hit
* The velocity of the hit

I do have logging to help me balance those attributes, if you want to post the game log of the game in question I can look and see each fumble play and how the variables played into it to aid in tweaking them if necessary.

Re: Fumble Proneness

By WarEagle
10/20/2015 8:14 am
Here is the game log for the conference championship in MFN-21.

The teams combined for 8 fumbles, most of which were in the first quarter, and by players with very high avoid fumble ratings.

http://cust21.myfootballnow.com/log/997

Re: Fumble Proneness

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/20/2015 8:48 am
WarEagle wrote:
Here is the game log for the conference championship in MFN-21.

The teams combined for 8 fumbles, most of which were in the first quarter, and by players with very high avoid fumble ratings.

http://cust21.myfootballnow.com/log/997


FWIW, all of those fumbles had a probability of < 5% and were boosted to even that point with having multiple defenders engaging in the tackle and attempting to strip the ball.

Re: Fumble Proneness

By WarEagle
10/20/2015 9:25 am
jdavidbakr wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
Here is the game log for the conference championship in MFN-21.

The teams combined for 8 fumbles, most of which were in the first quarter, and by players with very high avoid fumble ratings.

http://cust21.myfootballnow.com/log/997


FWIW, all of those fumbles had a probability of < 5% and were boosted to even that point with having multiple defenders engaging in the tackle and attempting to strip the ball.


5% seems pretty high for a player with an excellent avoid fumble rating. That's one fumble every 20 carries!

Re: Fumble Proneness

By oukjweather
10/20/2015 9:42 am
WarEagle wrote:
jdavidbakr wrote:
WarEagle wrote:
Here is the game log for the conference championship in MFN-21.

The teams combined for 8 fumbles, most of which were in the first quarter, and by players with very high avoid fumble ratings.

http://cust21.myfootballnow.com/log/997


FWIW, all of those fumbles had a probability of < 5% and were boosted to even that point with having multiple defenders engaging in the tackle and attempting to strip the ball.


5% seems pretty high for a player with an excellent avoid fumble rating. That's one fumble every 20 carries!


1 fumble every 20 carries would be high if we are talking regular runs, but the setting that is producing that probability is with multiple defenders all engaged trying to strip the ball. It makes sense if the player is under a lot of duress to fumble the ball from defenders trying to force it out that the probability would be higher. Now I do think a player with 90+ ratings in this area would know that at the end of the game setting defenders would want to strip the ball and do more to protect the ball and get down if he is about to be gang tackled.

Re: Fumble Proneness

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/20/2015 10:48 am
oukjweather wrote:
1 fumble every 20 carries would be high if we are talking regular runs, but the setting that is producing that probability is with multiple defenders all engaged trying to strip the ball. It makes sense if the player is under a lot of duress to fumble the ball from defenders trying to force it out that the probability would be higher. Now I do think a player with 90+ ratings in this area would know that at the end of the game setting defenders would want to strip the ball and do more to protect the ball and get down if he is about to be gang tackled.


This definitely appears to be the factor that has the most weight in this situation, I will probably look to reduce it per the avoid fumble attribute.

Re: Fumble Proneness

By WarEagle
10/20/2015 11:22 am
Most of the fumbles in question were during the first quarter I believe.
I don't think the defense would have resorted to trying to strip the ball on every play already.