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Main - General MFN Discussion

DB stats

By GrandadB
7/25/2021 11:38 am
Have posted about it before, so will keep on tryin. On the stats for pass defense, when it comes to stats that really mean something, catch allowed % is a key stat, but there's no yards per catch allowed. Instead, we have the yards for interception return and TDs. Would it be possible to change out one of those two columns and provide the ypc allowed stat? That is much more important to see when evaluating coverage performance.

Re: DB stats

By Chicagobears
7/25/2021 1:58 pm
Right?
For instance, one of my players (Overstreet) in the DFL, he's got 8 picks last season and 3 picks this season already in 8 games. By the naked eye, that looks like a top caliber CB.
However, when you dig deeper, you notice he allows a lot of yards on good routes such as FL Hitch and deep throws down the field. If he were to have yards and TDs allowed, he would've at least given up 10 TDs last season on just the FL Hitch. But because opponents had thrown so much into his direction, his stats are often inflated. This season I switched him to no1 CB and he only had one pick all season outside of an abnormal 2 picks in one game.
My no1 CB (Tan) last season had 6 picks, and he's no2 for this season. He was much better in covering the hitch (although higher completion percentage). Although he might not have too much picks (3), he was able to keep the Hitch most of the times in check in contrast to numerous TDs given last season by Overstreet.
Last edited at 7/25/2021 2:06 pm

Re: DB stats

By TheAdmiral
7/25/2021 2:23 pm
That also has to do with play selection and players (style). If you're team play m2m you'll likely give up less catches and yards but get fewer interceptions.

With Zone you'll give up more yards and completions but also get more interceptions

If you blitz a lot you'll likely give up a lot of yards and catches but may also force errant throws for incompletions or interceptions - generally these picks will be from pressure, Zone picks will be from 'jumping' routes - which is bad when you 'whiff' and the picks from m2m are generally from good coverage and generally being better than the WR.

Re: DB stats

By GrandadB
7/25/2021 3:27 pm
There are a few more factors that affect coverage performance, but getting back to the point of this post, irregardless of the type of defense or play selection, I would rather see the Yards Per Catch Allowed than the Avg. Yards per Interception return. Most of the defensive plays have the CBs covering M2M, and there are several defenses, like the OLB Flat Zone, that get used predominantly. 2 Deep and 1 Deep involve one or both safeties in zone coverage. For some owners, including myself, my corners are never or very rarely in zone coverage.

SO AGAIN, PLEASE, JDB, CHANGE THE DEFENSIVE PASS COVERAGE STATS TO INCLUDE THE YARDS PER CATCH ALLOWED instead of the average yards per interception return.
Last edited at 7/25/2021 3:29 pm

Re: DB stats

By Chicagobears
7/25/2021 3:30 pm
To be honest, I want JDB to include the total yards allowed instead, and therefore can do some math to figure out the depth of targets and the yards allowed per target that way.
Last edited at 7/25/2021 3:30 pm

Re: DB stats

By TheAdmiral
7/25/2021 6:05 pm
You need to pm JDB directly as he no longer reads forums - with the possible exception of MFN-1.

Re: DB stats

By setherick
8/20/2021 8:20 pm
TheAdmiral wrote:


If you blitz a lot you'll likely give up a lot of yards and catches but may also force errant throws for incompletions or interceptions - generally these picks will be from pressure, Zone picks will be from 'jumping' routes - which is bad when you 'whiff' and the picks from m2m are generally from good coverage and generally being better than the WR.



Statistically speaking this isn't true of MFN. QBs read the blitz almost immediately and throw before taking pressure. The only passes that blitzes work against are long passes where the game short circuits pass blocking so that QBs can't just sit back all day and throw the ball to a WR that is going to drop it anyway because the game reduces catching skills to near 0 on long throws to compensate for broken coverage.

You're better off actually playing straight M2M with 1 or 2 deep safeties if you want to force a lot of INTs. The "zone is better for INTs" argument doesn't actually hold. Instead, zone defenses produce as many INTs as M2M but no more, and zone gives up a much higher median yards per play and completion percentage as does M2M.

As far as gdad's statement about wanting to see YPC, there isn't currently a way to get to it in the game log. The PBP text does not contain WHERE the receiver first caught the ball, so you can't string parse out advanced statistics. These would need to be added to the game log first.

Re: DB stats

By setherick
8/30/2021 8:19 pm
Wanted to comment on something else. I've known for a long time that the catch allowed stat is broken because it counts defender catches allowed when the defender is the closest to the play.

But it's also mathematically broken. For example, look at this player's playoff stats from last year: https://paydirt.myfootballnow.com/player/8893

You can't allow 3 catches on 3 attempts AND have a knockdown. So the best way to figure catches allowed is to take the catches / (total attempts + knockdowns). That will make some players look a whole lot better.

Re: DB stats

By Chicagobears
8/30/2021 9:58 pm
Maybe he wasn't supposed to be on the offensive player but he got there in time and had a pass deflection.

Re: DB stats

By setherick
8/30/2021 10:20 pm
Chicagobears wrote:
Maybe he wasn't supposed to be on the offensive player but he got there in time and had a pass deflection.


See my post above. The only time that the catch stat comes into play is if the defender is the closest defender to the receiver. That's why LBs give up so many catches. RBs catch the ball out of the backfield before the LB can break, etc.