jdavidbakr wrote:
setherick wrote:
Unless this changed without any of us knowing, this is completely untrue. Any player that busts at camp busts for their entire career. Any player that booms at camp, booms their entire career.
-3 is not a bust. If a player moves that minimally, especially if he has low volatility, he is just as likely to come back up. What changed is the magnitude of rookies' movement in their first training camp. Before that may have been -1 or less.
So, first JDB tries to avoid the issue by telling a lie: That a player who goes -3 in camp can go +3 during the season.
This is obviously false, or not working. With the exception of weight changes (and corresponding speed changes), a player who gains or loses points in camp will only continue in the same direction.
When setherick points out the absurdity of his claim, JDB changes the conversation. Nevermind the issue at hand, who says -3 is a bust? No player should be a sure thing! (Forget the part where nobody is questioning that.)
I would be curious to hear from others on this. I appreciate the uncertainty, but I'd also like the vol to be more reliable. I believe -5 is a major disappointment, the kind of thing that would make a 2nd round pick a 4th or 5th rounder. That kind of swing should be extremely rare for a low vol player. Overall, the draft has gone from my most favorite part of managing a team to unbearably infuriating. The only smart move right now is to get rid of your first-round picks, trading them for proven player and/or later rounds. That's inherently bad.
There's a bigger problem with the draft, which is talent distribution to begin with. Speed ratings are just plain stupid. Which brings us full circle. My all-time favorite lie was when JDB was promising us that linemen were slower than skill position players, that speed means something different for each position, and we just weren't smart enough to comprehend the physics of a player's weight. Then he normalized speed so that 80 means 80 no matter the position or weight, and it became obvious that he was lying all along.