GrandadB wrote:
Is there a "determined" % of top pick busts? I know the new volatility category is going to add a factor to that, was just wondering if there is a "ballpark" % of busts, like 20%?
Each draftee has scores. Volatility, the amount he will go up or down, depending on a roll each camp. And a secret value, this tells whether he will go up or down and it is pre built into the player This is the only algorithim closed to the public.
So, in theory if a draft happened and all the GMs picked the guys in the 1st rd who had these high volatility scores and thier secret value was to go down...... ALL in theroy would be busts.
What really happens pre visiable volatility scores was 1-3 players, on average, would bust in the 1st. And IMO that is simple as going down more than -7 or -9 Though, depending on your ratings a -16 might be the extreme drop in one camp.
This is purely a guess as this is secret. I believe JDB uses a bell curve type of scale were most players will stay the same, but outliers will happen. Where scores will range 30 points either way over a career. A severe 1st rd bust being a 99 potenial and finishing in the 70's, will happen, but it might be 1 out of ten drafts. Where most are players are falling within the 5 to 7 range, up or down. Or 3 to 10 percent might boom or bust as people might pick safe with visable volatility scores.