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Question about draft pick trade value

By Groo
9/20/2013 8:26 am
When making a trade, does the game look at the previous year draft pick to determine value of a draft pick?

So, last season Tampa Bay made it to the Super Bowl, losing to Pittsburgh in a close game. If I try to trade a pick, will the value of my pick be measured by my team's success last year, or by my team's current success?

The reason I ask is that I am having trouble with what values the game are placing on draft picks, and I can only guess that the game is using last year's draft order to determine value, even though some teams are better and some worse than they were last year... and so the values seem to be skewed.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
9/20/2013 11:28 am
Groo wrote:
When making a trade, does the game look at the previous year draft pick to determine value of a draft pick?

So, last season Tampa Bay made it to the Super Bowl, losing to Pittsburgh in a close game. If I try to trade a pick, will the value of my pick be measured by my team's success last year, or by my team's current success?

The reason I ask is that I am having trouble with what values the game are placing on draft picks, and I can only guess that the game is using last year's draft order to determine value, even though some teams are better and some worse than they were last year... and so the values seem to be skewed.


It should be looking at your current record, not your previous season's record, once games start. At 3-2 you actually are in the upper third, probably. The league is divided up I think in 4 groups for grating the draft picks during the season, of course at this point in the season there's not a huge difference between the bottom of the top quarter and the top of the bottom quarter.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By Groo
9/20/2013 8:11 pm
The reason I ask is because I did some tests with different teams for the same player and a 1st round pick.. 1 team is 3-2 like Tampa, picked high last season, and when I do the trade it looks like the 1st round pick is too valuable to do the trade... then I do another team that is also 3-2 and picked in the bottom 10 of the draft and the trade shows it is within reasonable expectations.

This is why I felt like it was using last season's record to determine value of picks. Thanks for the reply.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By King of Bling
10/04/2013 10:22 am
no response???

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/04/2013 12:06 pm
You can see above how the logic is deciding future pick values - breaking the league into 4 groups to decide whether to score a pick as the middle of the first fourth, the middle of the second fourth, the middle of the third fourth, or the middle of the last fourth - at this point that's the best algorithm I've come up with. I'm open to suggestions, though. I can see where it would be problematic at the beginning of the season, where of course most of the trades would be happening. But I'm not sure I want to base it on the previous season's record instead, or make all 1st round picks worth the same for everyone.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By King of Bling
10/05/2013 11:32 am
the #1 pick should be worth a ton more than the 32nd pick...can't do it by round only.
The picks have to be weighted with diminishing differences between picks the deeper the draft goes. For instance, a bigger gap between pick 1 and pick 5, than between picks 107 and 112 for instance.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/05/2013 11:45 am
King of Bling wrote:
the #1 pick should be worth a ton more than the 32nd pick...can't do it by round only.
The picks have to be weighted with diminishing differences between picks the deeper the draft goes. For instance, a bigger gap between pick 1 and pick 5, than between picks 107 and 112 for instance.


That does happen once the draft order is set. The problem I think we're talking about is the future years' value, during the first part of the season when there really isn't an objective method to identify how a team is likely to fall in the following year's draft.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By ZootMurph
10/05/2013 5:45 pm
King of Bling wrote:
the #1 pick should be worth a ton more than the 32nd pick...can't do it by round only.
The picks have to be weighted with diminishing differences between picks the deeper the draft goes. For instance, a bigger gap between pick 1 and pick 5, than between picks 107 and 112 for instance.


This was discussed. I think JDB is using a system close to, if not exactly following, the NFL draft pick value chart.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By Firefly
10/07/2013 8:25 am
I suggest using the last 16 regular season games played to determine the value of a first round pick. For example, if you're 4-2 you'd add the last 10 weeks of previous season to work out a 16-game record, then see how that would stack against the rest of the league.

Re: Question about draft pick trade value

By jdavidbakr - Site Admin
10/07/2013 8:30 am
Firefly wrote:
I suggest using the last 16 regular season games played to determine the value of a first round pick. For example, if you're 4-2 you'd add the last 10 weeks of previous season to work out a 16-game record, then see how that would stack against the rest of the league.


That's a good idea, it won't be something I can get in place soon but I'll put it on the list.